Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Wednesday, September 30, 2026, 02:05 (UK time)
Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Independiente Medellin take on Millonarios on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 02:05 (UK time), a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin. Millonarios start as favourites with a 47% chance of victory; Independiente Medellin are given 27% and the draw 26%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (12.1%) and 1-2 (9.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Independiente Medellin have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Millonarios have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 12 and conceding 8. Independiente Medellin therefore arrive in far better shape than Millonarios. On average Independiente Medellin score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Millonarios score 2.40 and concede 1.60. In the table, Independiente Medellin sit 4th with 19 points from 9 games, Millonarios 2nd with 20 points from 12. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Independiente Medellin have averaged 0.79 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.88 for Millonarios.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Independiente Medellin, 0 for Millonarios and 1 draw. The most recent ended Millonarios 0-0 Independiente Medellin (Feb 2, 2026). In double chance terms, "Independiente Medellin or draw" stands at 53%, "Millonarios or draw" at 73% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Millonarios are tipped by our AI model in this Independiente Medellin v Millonarios (47%). In the table, Independiente Medellin (4th, 19 pts) host Millonarios (2nd, 20 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Independiente Medellin – Millonarios. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin 1-1 Millonarios | 12.5% |
| Independiente Medellin 0-1 Millonarios | 12.1% |
| Independiente Medellin 1-2 Millonarios | 9.1% |
| Independiente Medellin 0-2 Millonarios | 8.8% |
| Independiente Medellin 1-0 Millonarios | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.03 expected goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.45 for Millonarios, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 45% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Independiente Medellin keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Millonarios in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin expected goals | 1.03 |
| Millonarios expected goals | 1.45 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% |
| Independiente Medellin clean sheet | 24% |
| Millonarios clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Independiente Medellin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Cucuta · Copa Colombia | 2-1 | W |
| May 30, 2026 | Leones FC · Copa Colombia | 1-1 | D |
Millonarios
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Universitario · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| May 30, 2026 | Depor FC · Copa Colombia | 8-1 | W |
| May 26, 2026 | O'Higgins · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-2 | L |
| May 23, 2026 | Chico · Copa Colombia | 2-2 | D |
| May 20, 2026 | Sao Paulo · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 4 | 19 | 9 |
| Millonarios | 2 | 20 | 12 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | Millonarios 0-0 Independiente Medellin | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Independiente Medellin
No absences reported.
Millonarios
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Independiente Medellin
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Moreno2/3
- E. Mena Perea2/3
- H. Loboa2/3
- J. Mena2/3
- J. Montano2/3
- J. Varela2/3
- A. Martegani1/3
- Agustín Martegani1/3
- D. Catano1/3
- Didier Moreno1/3
- E. Chaux1/3
Millonarios
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Llinas3/3
- J. Arias3/3
- L. Castro3/3
- M. Garcia3/3
- R. Contreras3/3
- R. Urena3/3
- S. Mosquera3/3
- S. Valencia3/3
- S. Viveros3/3
- D. Novoa2/3
- D. Silva2/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo Pereira – Internacional de BogotaSep 26, 2026
- Cucuta – LlanerosSep 27, 2026
- Junior – Independiente MedellinSep 27, 2026
- Jaguares – Alianza ValleduparSep 27, 2026
- Deportivo Cali – Águilas DoradasSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira – Santa FeSep 30, 2026
- Atletico Nacional – JuniorOct 1, 2026
- Internacional de Bogota – Once CaldasOct 2, 2026
- Deportivo Cali – Alianza ValleduparOct 3, 2026
- Águilas Doradas – JaguaresOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios prediction?
Our AI gives Independiente Medellin a 27% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Millonarios 47%. Millonarios are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (12.1%), 1-2 (9.1%), 0-2 (8.8%) and 1-0 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?
The probability that both Independiente Medellin and Millonarios score is 49%. Independiente Medellin have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Millonarios 36%.
How many goals should we expect in Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?
The model expects 2.48 goals (1.03 for Independiente Medellin, 1.45 for Millonarios). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 71%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 24%.
When and where is Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios played?
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 02:05 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin.
What form are Independiente Medellin and Millonarios in?
Independiente Medellin: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Millonarios: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Independiente Medellin and Millonarios?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Independiente Medellin, 0 for Millonarios and 1 draw. The most recent ended Millonarios 0-0 Independiente Medellin (Feb 2, 2026).
How is the Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.03 for Independiente Medellin, 1.45 for Millonarios) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Independiente Medellin predictions
- All Millonarios predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology