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Colombian Primera AColombian Primera A· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 01:45 (UK time)

Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar: 3-1 result and AI prediction review

Deportivo CaliDeportivo Cali3 – 1Alianza ValleduparAlianza Valledupar

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Deportivo Cali 3-1 Alianza Valledupar. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Deportivo Cali was the model's favourite outcome (73%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.

Match analysis

Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar was played on Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Colombian Primera A). Venue: Estadio Deportivo Cali, Palmira. Before kick-off, our model gave Deportivo Cali a 73% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Alianza Valledupar 10%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.9%), ahead of 1-0 (11.0%) and 3-0 (10.0%).

Deportivo Cali are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Alianza Valledupar have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Deportivo Cali. On average Deportivo Cali score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Alianza Valledupar score 1.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, Deportivo Cali sit 3rd with 21 points from 11 games, Alianza Valledupar 15th with 11 points from 11. 12 places separate the two sides.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Deportivo Cali, 3 for Alianza Valledupar and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Cali 1-0 Alianza Valledupar (May 21, 2026). In double chance terms, "Deportivo Cali or draw" stands at 90%, "Alianza Valledupar or draw" at 27% and "no draw" at 83%.

In short : Deportivo Cali are favourites for this Deportivo Cali v Alianza Valledupar, with a 73% win probability from our model. On recent form, Deportivo Cali are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Alianza Valledupar have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

73%
Deportivo Cali (Win)
17%
Draw
10%
Alianza Valledupar (Win)

Double chance

90%
Deportivo Cali or draw
27%
Alianza Valledupar or draw
83%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Deportivo Cali – Alianza Valledupar. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Deportivo Cali 2-0 Alianza Valledupar12.9%
Deportivo Cali 1-0 Alianza Valledupar11.0%
Deportivo Cali 3-0 Alianza Valledupar10.0%
Deportivo Cali 2-1 Alianza Valledupar9.3%
Deportivo Cali 1-1 Alianza Valledupar7.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.05 goals in total (2.33 for Deportivo Cali, 0.72 for Alianza Valledupar): over 2.5 goals has a 59% probability and both teams to score 46%. Everything points to an open game. Deportivo Cali keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Alianza Valledupar in 10%.

Probability
Deportivo Cali expected goals2.33
Alianza Valledupar expected goals0.72
Both teams to score46%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Deportivo Cali clean sheet49%
Alianza Valledupar clean sheet10%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Deportivo Cali

DateOpponentScore
Sep 28, 2026Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A2-0W
Sep 23, 2026Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A1-0W
Sep 20, 2026Cucuta · Colombian Primera A3-0W
Sep 14, 2026Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Sep 11, 2026Millonarios · Colombian Primera A1-1D

Alianza Valledupar

DateOpponentScore
Sep 27, 2026Jaguares · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Sep 19, 2026Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A1-4L
Sep 16, 2026Chico · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Sep 13, 2026Junior · Colombian Primera A1-0W
Sep 10, 2026Once Caldas · Copa Colombia0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Deportivo Cali32111
Alianza Valledupar151111

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 21, 2026Deportivo Cali 1-0 Alianza ValleduparCopa Colombia
Mar 22, 2026Alianza Valledupar 1-0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
Oct 28, 2025Deportivo Cali 0-1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
May 11, 2025Alianza Valledupar 2-0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
Jul 23, 2024Deportivo Cali 1-0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A

Out and doubtful

Deportivo Cali

No absences reported.

Alianza Valledupar

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Deportivo Cali

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. Bello5/5
  • E. Velasco5/5
  • L. Chaverra5/5
  • F. Alvarez4/5
  • F. Viafara4/5
  • G. Cuellar4/5
  • J. C. Caldera Alvis4/5
  • J. Martinez4/5
  • N. Benedetti3/5
  • P. Gallese3/5
  • J. Dinenno2/5

Alianza Valledupar

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • I. Alba5/5
  • J. Figueroa5/5
  • J. Viveros5/5
  • D. Quinones4/5
  • E. Beltran4/5
  • J. Castillo4/5
  • C. Vergara3/5
  • F. Pardo3/5
  • J. Lasso3/5
  • J. Munoz3/5
  • W. Fernandez3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Deportivo Cali a 73% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Alianza Valledupar 10%. Deportivo Cali are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar?

2-0 (12.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.0%), 3-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-1 (7.9%).

Will both teams score in Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar?

The probability that both Deportivo Cali and Alianza Valledupar score is 46%. Deportivo Cali have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alianza Valledupar 10%.

How many goals should we expect in Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar?

The model expects 3.05 goals (2.33 for Deportivo Cali, 0.72 for Alianza Valledupar). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 36%.

When and where is Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar played?

Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 01:45 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Deportivo Cali, Palmira.

What form are Deportivo Cali and Alianza Valledupar in?

Deportivo Cali: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). Alianza Valledupar: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo Cali and Alianza Valledupar?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Deportivo Cali, 3 for Alianza Valledupar and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Cali 1-0 Alianza Valledupar (May 21, 2026).

What was the Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Deportivo Cali 3-1 Alianza Valledupar. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Deportivo Cali was the model's favourite outcome (73%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.

How is the Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.33 for Deportivo Cali, 0.72 for Alianza Valledupar) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained