Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Independiente Medellin 0-1 Santa Fe. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Independiente Medellin (51%), while victory for Santa Fe was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
Match analysis
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe was played on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (Colombian Primera A). Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Itagui. Before kick-off, our model gave Independiente Medellin a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Santa Fe 24%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.7%), ahead of 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Independiente Medellin have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Santa Fe have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Independiente Medellin score 1.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Santa Fe score 1.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Independiente Medellin sit 6th with 20 points from 11 games, Santa Fe 7th with 19 points from 11. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Independiente Medellin, 3 for Santa Fe and 1 draw. The most recent ended Santa Fe 2-1 Independiente Medellin (Mar 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Independiente Medellin or draw" stands at 76%, "Santa Fe or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Independiente Medellin are tipped by our AI model in this Independiente Medellin v Santa Fe (51%). In the table, Independiente Medellin (6th, 20 pts) host Santa Fe (7th, 19 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Independiente Medellin – Santa Fe. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin 1-1 Santa Fe | 11.7% |
| Independiente Medellin 1-0 Santa Fe | 11.5% |
| Independiente Medellin 2-1 Santa Fe | 9.6% |
| Independiente Medellin 2-0 Santa Fe | 9.4% |
| Independiente Medellin 0-1 Santa Fe | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.63 for Independiente Medellin, 1.02 for Santa Fe): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 51%. Independiente Medellin keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Santa Fe in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin expected goals | 1.63 |
| Santa Fe expected goals | 1.02 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Independiente Medellin clean sheet | 36% |
| Santa Fe clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Independiente Medellin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Millonarios · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Junior · Colombian Primera A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Jaguares · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bucaramanga · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Chico · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
Santa Fe
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Deportivo Pereira · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Union Magdalena · Copa Colombia | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Deportivo Cali · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 6 | 20 | 11 |
| Santa Fe | 7 | 19 | 11 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Santa Fe 2-1 Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 1-1 Santa Fe | Primera A |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Santa Fe 0-3 Independiente Medellin | Copa Colombia |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 1-2 Santa Fe | Copa Colombia |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 1-2 Santa Fe | Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Independiente Medellin
No absences reported.
Santa Fe
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Independiente Medellin
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Martegani5/5
- D. Moreno4/5
- E. Chaux4/5
- J. Medina4/5
- K. Mantilla4/5
- A. Simarra3/5
- E. Mena Perea3/5
- H. Palacios3/5
- J. Montano3/5
- K. Klinger3/5
- B. Perlaza2/5
Santa Fe
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Mosquera4/4
- E. Olivera4/4
- H. Palacios4/4
- C. Mafla3/4
- D. Torres3/4
- J. Obrian3/4
- J. Torres3/4
- V. Moreno3/4
- A. Zapata2/4
- F. Fagundez2/4
- F. Fagúndez2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo Cali 3-1 Alianza ValleduparOct 3, 2026
- Águilas Doradas 2-0 JaguaresOct 3, 2026
- Deportes Tolima 0-0 ChicoOct 3, 2026
- Deportivo Pasto 0-0 Fortaleza FCOct 4, 2026
- Cucuta 4-0 Deportivo PereiraOct 4, 2026
- Internacional de Bogota 1-1 Once CaldasOct 4, 2026
- Bucaramanga 3-1 JuniorOct 5, 2026
- Llaneros 1-2 America de CaliOct 5, 2026
- Atletico Nacional 0-0 Deportes TolimaOct 9, 2026
- Fortaleza FC 1-1 MillonariosOct 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Independiente Medellin a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Santa Fe 24%. Independiente Medellin are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
1-1 (11.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.4%) and 0-1 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
The probability that both Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe score is 51%. Independiente Medellin have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Santa Fe 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.63 for Independiente Medellin, 1.02 for Santa Fe). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Itagui.
What form are Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe in?
Independiente Medellin: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded). Santa Fe: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Independiente Medellin, 3 for Santa Fe and 1 draw. The most recent ended Santa Fe 2-1 Independiente Medellin (Mar 23, 2026).
What was the Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Independiente Medellin 0-1 Santa Fe. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Independiente Medellin (51%), while victory for Santa Fe was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
How is the Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.63 for Independiente Medellin, 1.02 for Santa Fe) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Independiente Medellin predictions
- All Santa Fe predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology