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Colombian Primera AColombian Primera A· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 22:05 (UK time)

Deportes Tolima vs Chico: 0-0 result and AI prediction review

Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima0 – 0ChicoChico

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Deportes Tolima 0-0 Chico. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Deportes Tolima (61%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): missed.

Match analysis

Deportes Tolima vs Chico was played on Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Colombian Primera A). Venue: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Iwag. Before kick-off, our model gave Deportes Tolima a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chico 17%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 2-0 (11.2%) and 1-1 (10.4%).

Deportes Tolima have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Chico have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Chico. On average Deportes Tolima score 1.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Chico score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Deportes Tolima sit 8th with 18 points from 11 games, Chico 14th with 11 points from 10. 6 places separate the two sides.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Deportes Tolima, 0 for Chico and 2 draws. The most recent ended Chico 1-1 Deportes Tolima (Mar 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Deportes Tolima or draw" stands at 83%, "Chico or draw" at 39% and "no draw" at 78%.

In short : Deportes Tolima are tipped by our AI model in this Deportes Tolima v Chico (61%). On recent form, Deportes Tolima have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Chico have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

61%
Deportes Tolima (Win)
22%
Draw
17%
Chico (Win)

Double chance

83%
Deportes Tolima or draw
39%
Chico or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Deportes Tolima – Chico. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Deportes Tolima 1-0 Chico11.8%
Deportes Tolima 2-0 Chico11.2%
Deportes Tolima 1-1 Chico10.4%
Deportes Tolima 2-1 Chico9.9%
Deportes Tolima 3-0 Chico7.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.78 goals in total (1.90 for Deportes Tolima, 0.88 for Chico): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 50%. Deportes Tolima keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Chico in 15%.

Probability
Deportes Tolima expected goals1.90
Chico expected goals0.88
Both teams to score50%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Deportes Tolima clean sheet42%
Chico clean sheet15%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Deportes Tolima

DateOpponentScore
Sep 28, 2026Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A2-2D
Sep 21, 2026America de Cali · Colombian Primera A1-1D
Sep 17, 2026Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A0-1L
Sep 12, 2026Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A0-1L
Sep 8, 2026Llaneros · Colombian Primera A2-1W

Chico

DateOpponentScore
Sep 26, 2026Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A3-0W
Sep 19, 2026Millonarios · Colombian Primera A0-3L
Sep 16, 2026Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A1-2L
Sep 13, 2026Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Sep 5, 2026Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Deportes Tolima81811
Chico141110

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 23, 2026Chico 1-1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
Sep 15, 2025Deportes Tolima 4-0 ChicoPrimera A
Apr 2, 2025Chico 1-4 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
Sep 16, 2024Deportes Tolima 2-1 ChicoPrimera A
Mar 1, 2024Chico 1-1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A

Out and doubtful

Deportes Tolima

No absences reported.

Chico

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Deportes Tolima

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Angulo5/5
  • J. Angulo5/5
  • Neto Volpi5/5
  • E. Lopez4/5
  • H. E. Martinez Yepez4/5
  • J. Hernandez4/5
  • A. Parra Osorio3/5
  • E. Valencia3/5
  • K. Florez3/5
  • L. Sanchez3/5
  • S. Guzman3/5

Chico

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Agudelo5/5
  • E. Sarria5/5
  • J. Mena5/5
  • J. Pimentel5/5
  • S. Mera5/5
  • C. Mosquera4/5
  • J. Alomia4/5
  • J. Diaz4/5
  • S. Salazar4/5
  • C. Blanco Betancur3/5
  • F. Cifuentes2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Deportes Tolima vs Chico prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Deportes Tolima a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chico 17%. Deportes Tolima are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Deportes Tolima vs Chico?

1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (7.1%).

Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs Chico?

The probability that both Deportes Tolima and Chico score is 50%. Deportes Tolima have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Chico 15%.

How many goals should we expect in Deportes Tolima vs Chico?

The model expects 2.78 goals (1.90 for Deportes Tolima, 0.88 for Chico). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 30%.

When and where is Deportes Tolima vs Chico played?

Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 22:05 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Iwag.

What form are Deportes Tolima and Chico in?

Deportes Tolima: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded). Chico: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Tolima and Chico?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Deportes Tolima, 0 for Chico and 2 draws. The most recent ended Chico 1-1 Deportes Tolima (Mar 23, 2026).

What was the Deportes Tolima vs Chico result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Deportes Tolima 0-0 Chico. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Deportes Tolima (61%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): missed.

How is the Deportes Tolima vs Chico prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.90 for Deportes Tolima, 0.88 for Chico) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained