Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 22:05 (UK time)
Deportes Tolima vs Chico prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Colombian Primera A: the Deportes Tolima vs Chico match is scheduled on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 22:05 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. The edge goes to Deportes Tolima (59%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Chico win (17%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (15.2%), ahead of 2-0 (12.4%) and 1-1 (11.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Deportes Tolima have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Chico have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Deportes Tolima score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Chico score 1.40 and concede 1.60. In the table, Deportes Tolima sit 7th with 17 points from 10 games, Chico 17th with 8 points from 9. 10 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Deportes Tolima, 0 for Chico and 1 draw. The most recent ended Chico 1-1 Deportes Tolima (Mar 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Deportes Tolima or draw" stands at 83%, "Chico or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Deportes Tolima are tipped by our AI model in this Deportes Tolima v Chico (59%). On recent form, Deportes Tolima have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Chico have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Deportes Tolima – Chico. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima 1-0 Chico | 15.2% |
| Deportes Tolima 2-0 Chico | 12.4% |
| Deportes Tolima 1-1 Chico | 11.2% |
| Deportes Tolima 0-0 Chico | 9.3% |
| Deportes Tolima 2-1 Chico | 9.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.38 goals in total (1.64 for Deportes Tolima, 0.74 for Chico): over 2.5 goals has a 43% probability and both teams to score 42%. Deportes Tolima keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, Chico in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima expected goals | 1.64 |
| Chico expected goals | 0.74 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| Deportes Tolima clean sheet | 48% |
| Chico clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Deportes Tolima
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bucaramanga · Colombian Primera A | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Independiente del Valle · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
Chico
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Millonarios · Colombian Primera A | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | 7 | 17 | 10 |
| Chico | 17 | 8 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Chico 1-1 Deportes Tolima | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Deportes Tolima
No absences reported.
Chico
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Deportes Tolima
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- S. Guzman5/5
- A. Parra Osorio4/5
- H. E. Martinez Yepez4/5
- J. Angulo4/5
- J. Hernandez4/5
- J. Hurtado4/5
- A. Angulo3/5
- C. Arrieta3/5
- J. Mosquera3/5
- K. Florez3/5
- L. Sanchez3/5
Chico
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Mosquera5/5
- D. Agudelo5/5
- E. Sarria5/5
- J. Alomia5/5
- J. Diaz5/5
- J. Mena5/5
- J. Pimentel5/5
- S. Mera5/5
- C. Blanco Betancur4/5
- S. Salazar4/5
- A. Maya2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Independiente Medellin – MillonariosSep 30, 2026
- Atletico Nacional – JuniorOct 1, 2026
- Internacional de Bogota – Once CaldasOct 2, 2026
- Deportivo Cali – Alianza ValleduparOct 3, 2026
- Águilas Doradas – JaguaresOct 3, 2026
- Independiente Medellin – Santa FeOct 4, 2026
- Deportivo Pasto – Fortaleza FCOct 4, 2026
- Cucuta – Deportivo PereiraOct 4, 2026
- Bucaramanga – JuniorOct 5, 2026
- Llaneros – America de CaliOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Deportes Tolima vs Chico prediction?
Our AI gives Deportes Tolima a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Chico 17%. Deportes Tolima are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Deportes Tolima vs Chico?
1-0 (15.2%), followed by 2-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (9.3%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs Chico?
The probability that both Deportes Tolima and Chico score is 42%. Deportes Tolima have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Chico 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Deportes Tolima vs Chico?
The model expects 2.38 goals (1.64 for Deportes Tolima, 0.74 for Chico). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.
When and where is Deportes Tolima vs Chico played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 22:05 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
What form are Deportes Tolima and Chico in?
Deportes Tolima: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). Chico: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Tolima and Chico?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Deportes Tolima, 0 for Chico and 1 draw. The most recent ended Chico 1-1 Deportes Tolima (Mar 23, 2026).
How is the Deportes Tolima vs Chico prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for Deportes Tolima, 0.74 for Chico) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Deportes Tolima predictions
- All Chico predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology