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Colombian Primera AColombian Primera A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC prediction: correct score and AI tips

Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto–Fortaleza FCFortaleza FC

Match analysis

Colombian Primera A: the Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC match is scheduled on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto. The edge goes to Deportivo Pasto (54%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Fortaleza FC win (22%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.5%) and 2-0 (9.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, Deportivo Pasto have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Fortaleza FC have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Deportivo Pasto. On average Deportivo Pasto score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Fortaleza FC score 1.20 and concede 2.00. In the table, Deportivo Pasto sit 15th with 8 points from 10 games, Fortaleza FC 14th with 8 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Deportivo Pasto, 0 for Fortaleza FC and 0 draws. The most recent ended Fortaleza FC 1-2 Deportivo Pasto (Mar 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "Deportivo Pasto or draw" stands at 78%, "Fortaleza FC or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Our model backs Deportivo Pasto to edge Fortaleza FC (54% probability). In the table, Deportivo Pasto (15th, 8 pts) host Fortaleza FC (14th, 8 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 51%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

54%
Deportivo Pasto (Win)
24%
Draw
22%
Fortaleza FC (Win)

Double chance

78%
Deportivo Pasto or draw
46%
Fortaleza FC or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Deportivo Pasto – Fortaleza FC. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Fortaleza FC11.7%
Deportivo Pasto 1-1 Fortaleza FC11.5%
Deportivo Pasto 2-0 Fortaleza FC9.9%
Deportivo Pasto 2-1 Fortaleza FC9.7%
Deportivo Pasto 0-0 Fortaleza FC6.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.67 goals in total (1.69 for Deportivo Pasto, 0.98 for Fortaleza FC): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. Deportivo Pasto keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Fortaleza FC in 19%.

Probability
Deportivo Pasto expected goals1.69
Fortaleza FC expected goals0.98
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet38%
Fortaleza FC clean sheet19%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Deportivo Pasto

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A1-0W
Sep 15, 2026America de Cali · Colombian Primera A1-0W
Sep 10, 2026Independiente Medellin · Copa Colombia1-4L
Sep 6, 2026Cucuta · Colombian Primera A2-2D
Sep 1, 2026Deportivo Pereira · Colombian Primera A1-2L

Fortaleza FC

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Junior · Colombian Primera A1-4L
Sep 12, 2026Jaguares · Colombian Primera A2-2D
Sep 6, 2026Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A2-2D
Sep 2, 2026Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A1-2L
Aug 26, 2026Chico · Colombian Primera A0-0D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Deportivo Pasto15810
Fortaleza FC14810

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 25, 2026Fortaleza FC 1-2 Deportivo PastoColombian Primera A

Out and doubtful

Deportivo Pasto

No absences reported.

Fortaleza FC

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Deportivo Pasto

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Rios5/5
  • E. C. Serje Orozco4/5
  • H. Mancilla4/5
  • J. Perlaza4/5
  • M. Pisano4/5
  • N. Gil4/5
  • F. Leys3/5
  • G. Banguera3/5
  • H. Goyes3/5
  • M. Garavito3/5
  • M. S. Jimenez3/5

Fortaleza FC

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Copete5/5
  • J. Cajares5/5
  • L. Pico5/5
  • S. Navarro5/5
  • S. Vivas5/5
  • W. Barlasina5/5
  • Y. Diaz5/5
  • J. Blanco3/5
  • J. Solis3/5
  • J. Castillo2/5
  • J. Herrera2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC prediction?

Our AI gives Deportivo Pasto a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fortaleza FC 22%. Deportivo Pasto are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC?

1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.5%), 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC?

The probability that both Deportivo Pasto and Fortaleza FC score is 51%. Deportivo Pasto have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fortaleza FC 19%.

How many goals should we expect in Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC?

The model expects 2.67 goals (1.69 for Deportivo Pasto, 0.98 for Fortaleza FC). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC played?

Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto.

What form are Deportivo Pasto and Fortaleza FC in?

Deportivo Pasto: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). Fortaleza FC: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 10 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo Pasto and Fortaleza FC?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Deportivo Pasto, 0 for Fortaleza FC and 0 draws. The most recent ended Fortaleza FC 1-2 Deportivo Pasto (Mar 25, 2026).

How is the Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.69 for Deportivo Pasto, 0.98 for Fortaleza FC) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained