Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 02:15 (UK time)
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Colombian Primera A: the Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe match is scheduled on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 02:15 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Independiente Medellin 39%, Santa Fe 29% and the draw 32%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (16.0%), ahead of 0-0 (15.9%) and 1-1 (13.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Independiente Medellin have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Santa Fe are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Independiente Medellin score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Santa Fe score 1.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Independiente Medellin sit 4th with 19 points from 9 games, Santa Fe 8th with 16 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Independiente Medellin have averaged 0.79 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.06 for Santa Fe.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Independiente Medellin, 1 for Santa Fe and 0 draws. The most recent ended Santa Fe 2-1 Independiente Medellin (Mar 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Independiente Medellin or draw" stands at 71%, "Santa Fe or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 68%.
In short : Independiente Medellin are favourites for this Independiente Medellin v Santa Fe, with a 39% win probability from our model. On recent form, Independiente Medellin have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Santa Fe have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Independiente Medellin – Santa Fe. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 67% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin 1-0 Santa Fe | 16.0% |
| Independiente Medellin 0-0 Santa Fe | 15.9% |
| Independiente Medellin 1-1 Santa Fe | 13.3% |
| Independiente Medellin 0-1 Santa Fe | 13.2% |
| Independiente Medellin 2-0 Santa Fe | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.84 goals in total (1.01 for Independiente Medellin, 0.83 for Santa Fe): over 2.5 goals has a 28% probability and both teams to score 36%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Independiente Medellin keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Santa Fe in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin expected goals | 1.01 |
| Santa Fe expected goals | 0.83 |
| Both teams to score | 36% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% |
| Independiente Medellin clean sheet | 44% |
| Santa Fe clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Independiente Medellin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Cucuta · Copa Colombia | 2-1 | W |
| May 30, 2026 | Leones FC · Copa Colombia | 1-1 | D |
Santa Fe
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Deportes Tolima · Colombian Primera A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Millonarios · Colombian Primera A | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Junior · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 4 | 19 | 9 |
| Santa Fe | 8 | 16 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Santa Fe 2-1 Independiente Medellin | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Independiente Medellin
No absences reported.
Santa Fe
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Independiente Medellin
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Moreno2/3
- E. Mena Perea2/3
- H. Loboa2/3
- J. Mena2/3
- J. Montano2/3
- J. Varela2/3
- A. Martegani1/3
- Agustín Martegani1/3
- D. Catano1/3
- Didier Moreno1/3
- E. Chaux1/3
Santa Fe
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Fagundez4/5
- I. R. Scarpeta Silgado4/5
- J. Torres4/5
- W. Asprilla4/5
- D. Torres3/5
- E. Olivera3/5
- L. Palacios3/5
- M. Lovera3/5
- M. Puerta3/5
- N. Bustos3/5
- C. Mafla2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Atletico Nacional – JuniorOct 1, 2026
- Internacional de Bogota – Once CaldasOct 2, 2026
- Deportivo Cali – Alianza ValleduparOct 3, 2026
- Águilas Doradas – JaguaresOct 3, 2026
- Deportes Tolima – ChicoOct 3, 2026
- Cucuta – Deportivo PereiraOct 4, 2026
- Bucaramanga – JuniorOct 5, 2026
- Llaneros – America de CaliOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe prediction?
Our AI gives Independiente Medellin a 39% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Santa Fe 29%. Independiente Medellin are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
1-0 (16.0%), followed by 0-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (13.3%), 0-1 (13.2%) and 2-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
The probability that both Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe score is 36%. Independiente Medellin have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Santa Fe 36%.
How many goals should we expect in Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
The model expects 1.84 goals (1.01 for Independiente Medellin, 0.83 for Santa Fe). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 55%, over 2.5 goals 28%, over 3.5 goals 12%.
When and where is Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 02:15 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
What form are Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe in?
Independiente Medellin: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Santa Fe: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Independiente Medellin, 1 for Santa Fe and 0 draws. The most recent ended Santa Fe 2-1 Independiente Medellin (Mar 23, 2026).
How is the Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.01 for Independiente Medellin, 0.83 for Santa Fe) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Independiente Medellin predictions
- All Santa Fe predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology