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Colombian Primera AColombian Primera A· Kick-off : Sunday, November 1, 2026, 23:10 (UK time)

Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin2 – 1Alianza ValleduparAlianza Valledupar

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Independiente Medellin 2-1 Alianza Valledupar. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Independiente Medellin was the model's favourite outcome (43%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (8.0%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): missed.

Match analysis

Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar was played on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (Colombian Primera A). Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin. Before kick-off, our model gave Independiente Medellin a 43% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Alianza Valledupar 28%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.2%), ahead of 1-1 (13.2%) and 0-0 (11.8%).

Independiente Medellin have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Alianza Valledupar have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Alianza Valledupar. On average Independiente Medellin score 1.20 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Alianza Valledupar score 1.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Independiente Medellin sit 8th with 23 points from 16 games, Alianza Valledupar 14th with 18 points from 16. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Independiente Medellin have averaged 1.00 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.13 for Alianza Valledupar.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Independiente Medellin, 0 for Alianza Valledupar and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alianza Valledupar 0-1 Independiente Medellin (Apr 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Independiente Medellin or draw" stands at 72%, "Alianza Valledupar or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 71%.

In short : Independiente Medellin are tipped by our AI model in this Independiente Medellin v Alianza Valledupar (43%). In the table, Independiente Medellin (8th, 23 pts) host Alianza Valledupar (14th, 18 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

43%
Independiente Medellin (Win)
29%
Draw
28%
Alianza Valledupar (Win)

Double chance

72%
Independiente Medellin or draw
57%
Alianza Valledupar or draw
71%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Independiente Medellin – Alianza Valledupar. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Independiente Medellin 1-0 Alianza Valledupar14.2%
Independiente Medellin 1-1 Alianza Valledupar13.2%
Independiente Medellin 0-0 Alianza Valledupar11.8%
Independiente Medellin 0-1 Alianza Valledupar10.9%
Independiente Medellin 2-0 Alianza Valledupar8.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.14 goals in total (1.21 for Independiente Medellin, 0.93 for Alianza Valledupar): over 2.5 goals has a 36% probability and both teams to score 43%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Independiente Medellin keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Alianza Valledupar in 30%.

Probability
Independiente Medellin expected goals1.21
Alianza Valledupar expected goals0.93
Both teams to score43%
Over 1.5 goals63%
Over 2.5 goals36%
Over 3.5 goals17%
Independiente Medellin clean sheet40%
Alianza Valledupar clean sheet30%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Independiente Medellin

DateOpponentScore
Oct 29, 2026Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A1-3L
Oct 25, 2026Atletico Nacional · Colombian Primera A1-2L
Oct 18, 2026Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A0-2L
Oct 15, 2026Atletico Nacional · Copa Colombia2-3L
Oct 12, 2026America de Cali · Colombian Primera A2-1W

Alianza Valledupar

DateOpponentScore
Oct 28, 2026Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A0-1L
Oct 25, 2026Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A1-0W
Oct 20, 2026Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A1-0W
Oct 10, 2026Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A2-2D
Oct 3, 2026Deportivo Cali · Colombian Primera A1-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Independiente Medellin82316
Alianza Valledupar141816

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 19, 2026Alianza Valledupar 0-1 Independiente MedellinColombian Primera A

Out and doubtful

Independiente Medellin

No absences reported.

Alianza Valledupar

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Independiente Medellin

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Moreno5/5
  • F. Fabra5/5
  • A. Martegani4/5
  • E. Mena Perea4/5
  • H. Loboa4/5
  • J. Montano4/5
  • L. Escorcia4/5
  • Yony Gonzalez4/5
  • C. Lucumi3/5
  • H. Palacios3/5
  • J. Varela3/5

Alianza Valledupar

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. Beltran5/5
  • J. Castillo5/5
  • J. Lasso5/5
  • J. Munoz5/5
  • J. Viveros5/5
  • K. Moreno4/5
  • W. Fernandez4/5
  • C. Vergara3/5
  • I. Alba3/5
  • J. Figueroa3/5
  • D. Quinones2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Independiente Medellin a 43% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Alianza Valledupar 28%. Independiente Medellin are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar?

1-0 (14.2%), followed by 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.9%) and 2-0 (8.6%).

Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar?

The probability that both Independiente Medellin and Alianza Valledupar score is 43%. Independiente Medellin have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alianza Valledupar 30%.

How many goals should we expect in Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar?

The model expects 2.14 goals (1.21 for Independiente Medellin, 0.93 for Alianza Valledupar). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.

When and where is Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar played?

Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 23:10 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin.

What form are Independiente Medellin and Alianza Valledupar in?

Independiente Medellin: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded). Alianza Valledupar: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Independiente Medellin and Alianza Valledupar?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Independiente Medellin, 0 for Alianza Valledupar and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alianza Valledupar 0-1 Independiente Medellin (Apr 19, 2026).

What was the Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Independiente Medellin 2-1 Alianza Valledupar. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Independiente Medellin was the model's favourite outcome (43%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (8.0%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): missed.

How is the Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.21 for Independiente Medellin, 0.93 for Alianza Valledupar) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained