Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 23:20 (UK time)
Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Deportivo Pasto 2-0 Jaguares. The outcome was missed: the model favoured a draw (39%), while victory for Deportivo Pasto was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (23%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (15%): correct.
Match analysis
Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares was played on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (Colombian Primera A). Venue: Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto. Before kick-off, our model gave Deportivo Pasto a 25% chance of winning, the draw 39% and Jaguares 36%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (26.4%), ahead of 0-1 (19.8%) and 1-0 (15.3%).
Deportivo Pasto have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Jaguares have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Deportivo Pasto score 0.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Jaguares score 1.20 and concede 1.80. In the table, Deportivo Pasto sit 20th with 12 points from 16 games, Jaguares 18th with 13 points from 16. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Deportivo Pasto have averaged 0.54 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.80 for Jaguares.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Deportivo Pasto, 0 for Jaguares and 0 draws. The most recent ended Jaguares 2-3 Deportivo Pasto (Apr 17, 2026). In double chance terms, "Deportivo Pasto or draw" stands at 64%, "Jaguares or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 61%.
In short : Jaguares are tipped by our AI model in this Deportivo Pasto v Jaguares (36%). In the table, Deportivo Pasto (20th, 12 pts) host Jaguares (18th, 13 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Deportivo Pasto – Jaguares. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (26.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 80% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto 0-0 Jaguares | 26.4% |
| Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Jaguares | 19.8% |
| Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Jaguares | 15.3% |
| Deportivo Pasto 1-1 Jaguares | 11.5% |
| Deportivo Pasto 0-2 Jaguares | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.33 goals in total (0.58 for Deportivo Pasto, 0.75 for Jaguares): over 2.5 goals has a 15% probability and both teams to score 23%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Deportivo Pasto keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Jaguares in 56%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto expected goals | 0.58 |
| Jaguares expected goals | 0.75 |
| Both teams to score | 23% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 15% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 5% |
| Deportivo Pasto clean sheet | 47% |
| Jaguares clean sheet | 56% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Deportivo Pasto
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Bucaramanga · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Deportes Tolima · Colombian Primera A | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Atletico Nacional · Colombian Primera A | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A | 0-0 | D |
Jaguares
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Deportivo Pereira · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Llaneros · Colombian Primera A | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Millonarios · Colombian Primera A | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportes Tolima · Colombian Primera A | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 20 | 12 | 16 |
| Jaguares | 18 | 13 | 16 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Jaguares 2-3 Deportivo Pasto | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Deportivo Pasto
No absences reported.
Jaguares
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Deportivo Pasto
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. C. Serje Orozco5/5
- F. Leys5/5
- F. Torijano5/5
- G. Banguera5/5
- J. Perlaza5/5
- M. Garavito5/5
- N. Gil5/5
- D. Chavez4/5
- H. Goyes3/5
- H. Mancilla3/5
- J. Micolta Piedahita3/5
Jaguares
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Renteria5/5
- F. Mosquera5/5
- J. Franco5/5
- J. Lovera5/5
- J. Mejia5/5
- L. Jimenez5/5
- R. Bustamante5/5
- W. De La Rosa5/5
- Jopito4/5
- C. Henao3/5
- R. R. Colpa Bolano3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Llaneros 3-2 JuniorOct 31, 2026
- Deportivo Cali 2-0 ChicoNov 1, 2026
- Independiente Medellin 2-1 Alianza ValleduparNov 1, 2026
- Águilas Doradas 1-0 Fortaleza FCNov 2, 2026
- Bucaramanga 1-1 Atletico NacionalNov 3, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira 1-3 Deportes TolimaNov 3, 2026
- Cucuta 1-0 Santa FeNov 4, 2026
- Millonarios 0-0 America de CaliNov 5, 2026
- Chico 2-1 Internacional de BogotaNov 6, 2026
- Fortaleza FC 0-3 Independiente MedellinNov 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Deportivo Pasto a 25% chance of winning, the draw 39% and Jaguares 36%. A draw is therefore the most likely outcome. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares?
0-0 (26.4%), followed by 0-1 (19.8%), 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (11.5%) and 0-2 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares?
The probability that both Deportivo Pasto and Jaguares score is 23%. Deportivo Pasto have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Jaguares 56%.
How many goals should we expect in Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares?
The model expects 1.33 goals (0.58 for Deportivo Pasto, 0.75 for Jaguares). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 38%, over 2.5 goals 15%, over 3.5 goals 5%.
When and where is Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares played?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 23:20 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto.
What form are Deportivo Pasto and Jaguares in?
Deportivo Pasto: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 6 conceded). Jaguares: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo Pasto and Jaguares?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Deportivo Pasto, 0 for Jaguares and 0 draws. The most recent ended Jaguares 2-3 Deportivo Pasto (Apr 17, 2026).
What was the Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Deportivo Pasto 2-0 Jaguares. The outcome was missed: the model favoured a draw (39%), while victory for Deportivo Pasto was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (23%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (15%): correct.
How is the Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.58 for Deportivo Pasto, 0.75 for Jaguares) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Deportivo Pasto predictions
- All Jaguares predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology