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Colombian Primera AColombian Primera A· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)

Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin: 0-3 result and AI prediction review

Fortaleza FCFortaleza FC0 – 3Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Fortaleza FC 0-3 Independiente Medellin. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Independiente Medellin at 41%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (3.2%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): missed.

Match analysis

Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin met on Saturday, November 7, 2026, a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogota. Before kick-off, our model gave Fortaleza FC a 30% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Independiente Medellin 41%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (14.1%), followed by 1-1 (13.4%) and 0-0 (12.1%).

Fortaleza FC have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Independiente Medellin have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Fortaleza FC score 1.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Independiente Medellin score 1.20 and concede 2.20. In the table, Fortaleza FC sit 20th with 12 points from 17 games, Independiente Medellin 7th with 26 points from 17. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Fortaleza FC have averaged 1.09 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.09 for Independiente Medellin.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fortaleza FC, 4 for Independiente Medellin and 1 draw. The most recent ended Independiente Medellin 1-0 Fortaleza FC (May 11, 2026). In double chance terms, "Fortaleza FC or draw" stands at 59%, "Independiente Medellin or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 70%.

In short : Independiente Medellin are tipped by our AI model in this Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin (41%). In the table, Fortaleza FC (20th, 12 pts) host Independiente Medellin (7th, 26 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

30%
Fortaleza FC (Win)
30%
Draw
41%
Independiente Medellin (Win)

Double chance

59%
Fortaleza FC or draw
70%
Independiente Medellin or draw
70%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Fortaleza FC – Independiente Medellin. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (14.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Fortaleza FC 0-1 Independiente Medellin14.1%
Fortaleza FC 1-1 Independiente Medellin13.4%
Fortaleza FC 0-0 Independiente Medellin12.1%
Fortaleza FC 1-0 Independiente Medellin11.5%
Fortaleza FC 0-2 Independiente Medellin8.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.95 expected goals for Fortaleza FC and 1.16 for Independiente Medellin, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 35% and "both teams to score" at 42%. Few goals are expected here. Fortaleza FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Independiente Medellin in 39%.

Probability
Fortaleza FC expected goals0.95
Independiente Medellin expected goals1.16
Both teams to score42%
Over 1.5 goals62%
Over 2.5 goals35%
Over 3.5 goals16%
Fortaleza FC clean sheet31%
Independiente Medellin clean sheet39%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Fortaleza FC

DateOpponentScore
Nov 2, 2026Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A0-1L
Oct 29, 2026America de Cali · Colombian Primera A1-2L
Oct 25, 2026Deportivo Cali · Colombian Primera A1-1D
Oct 21, 2026Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A1-2L
Oct 11, 2026Santa Fe · Copa Colombia2-2D

Independiente Medellin

DateOpponentScore
Nov 1, 2026Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Oct 29, 2026Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A1-3L
Oct 25, 2026Atletico Nacional · Colombian Primera A1-2L
Oct 18, 2026Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A0-2L
Oct 15, 2026Atletico Nacional · Copa Colombia2-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Fortaleza FC201217
Independiente Medellin72617

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 11, 2026Independiente Medellin 1-0 Fortaleza FCCopa Colombia
Apr 26, 2026Independiente Medellin 1-0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
Oct 18, 2025Independiente Medellin 3-1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
Sep 4, 2025Independiente Medellin 2-1 Fortaleza FCCopa Colombia
Aug 27, 2025Fortaleza FC 0-0 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia

Out and doubtful

Fortaleza FC

No absences reported.

Independiente Medellin

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Fortaleza FC

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Medina Obando5/5
  • L. Pico5/5
  • S. Vivas5/5
  • W. Barlasina5/5
  • Y. Diaz5/5
  • F. Pulicastro4/5
  • J. Cajares4/5
  • S. Cuero4/5
  • J. Salas3/5
  • S. Navarro3/5
  • I. Montano2/5

Independiente Medellin

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Martegani5/5
  • F. Fabra5/5
  • D. Moreno4/5
  • E. Mena Perea4/5
  • H. Loboa4/5
  • J. Montano4/5
  • L. Escorcia4/5
  • Yony Gonzalez4/5
  • A. Simarra3/5
  • S. Ichazo3/5
  • C. Lucumi2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Fortaleza FC a 30% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Independiente Medellin 41%. Independiente Medellin are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin?

0-1 (14.1%), followed by 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.5%) and 0-2 (8.2%).

Will both teams score in Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin?

The probability that both Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin score is 42%. Fortaleza FC have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Independiente Medellin 39%.

How many goals should we expect in Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin?

The model expects 2.11 goals (0.95 for Fortaleza FC, 1.16 for Independiente Medellin). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 62%, over 2.5 goals 35%, over 3.5 goals 16%.

When and where is Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin played?

Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogota.

What form are Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin in?

Fortaleza FC: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded). Independiente Medellin: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fortaleza FC, 4 for Independiente Medellin and 1 draw. The most recent ended Independiente Medellin 1-0 Fortaleza FC (May 11, 2026).

What was the Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Fortaleza FC 0-3 Independiente Medellin. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Independiente Medellin at 41%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (3.2%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): missed.

How is the Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.95 for Fortaleza FC, 1.16 for Independiente Medellin) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained