Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 23:10 (UK time)
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira: 4-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Atletico Nacional 4-3 Deportivo Pereira. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Atletico Nacional was the model's favourite outcome (72%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
Match analysis
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira was played on Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Colombian Primera A). Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico Nacional a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Deportivo Pereira 9%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (15.9%), ahead of 2-0 (15.8%) and 3-0 (10.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Nacional have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Deportivo Pereira have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Atletico Nacional score 1.60 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Deportivo Pereira score 1.20 and concede 1.00. In the table, Atletico Nacional sit 1st with 36 points from 17 games, Deportivo Pereira 16th with 17 points from 17. 15 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Atletico Nacional have averaged 1.20 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.89 for Deportivo Pereira.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atletico Nacional, 1 for Deportivo Pereira and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Pereira 1-0 Atletico Nacional (Apr 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "Atletico Nacional or draw" stands at 91%, "Deportivo Pereira or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Atletico Nacional are favourites for this Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira, with a 72% win probability from our model. In the table, Atletico Nacional (1st, 36 pts) host Deportivo Pereira (16th, 17 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Nacional – Deportivo Pereira. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional 1-0 Deportivo Pereira | 15.9% |
| Atletico Nacional 2-0 Deportivo Pereira | 15.8% |
| Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportivo Pereira | 10.5% |
| Atletico Nacional 1-1 Deportivo Pereira | 8.6% |
| Atletico Nacional 2-1 Deportivo Pereira | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.53 goals in total (1.99 for Atletico Nacional, 0.54 for Deportivo Pereira): over 2.5 goals has a 46% probability and both teams to score 36%. Atletico Nacional keep a clean sheet in 58% of scenarios, Deportivo Pereira in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional expected goals | 1.99 |
| Deportivo Pereira expected goals | 0.54 |
| Both teams to score | 36% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Atletico Nacional clean sheet | 58% |
| Deportivo Pereira clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Nacional
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Bucaramanga · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Cucuta · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
Deportivo Pereira
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Deportes Tolima · Colombian Primera A | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Jaguares · Colombian Primera A | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Chico · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Junior · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 1 | 36 | 17 |
| Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 17 | 17 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Deportivo Pereira 1-0 Atletico Nacional | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Nacional
No absences reported.
Deportivo Pereira
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Atletico Nacional
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Armani4/5
- F. Marin4/5
- A. Reyes3/5
- A. Roman3/5
- E. Cabrera3/5
- E. Cardona3/5
- J. Campuzano3/5
- J. Rodriguez3/5
- S. Velasquez3/5
- W. Tesillo3/5
- A. Sarmiento2/5
Deportivo Pereira
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Delgado5/5
- J. Largacha5/5
- J. Monroy5/5
- M. Palacios5/5
- S. Aguilar5/5
- W. Pacheco5/5
- Y. A. Gomez Palacio5/5
- A. Plata4/5
- M. Perez4/5
- S. Urrea4/5
- E. Moreno3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Millonarios 0-0 America de CaliNov 5, 2026
- Chico 2-1 Internacional de BogotaNov 6, 2026
- Fortaleza FC 0-3 Independiente MedellinNov 7, 2026
- Once Caldas 1-0 Águilas DoradasNov 7, 2026
- America de Cali 0-0 Deportivo CaliNov 8, 2026
- Santa Fe 5-0 Deportivo PastoNov 8, 2026
- Jaguares 0-4 BucaramangaNov 8, 2026
- Deportes Tolima 2-1 MillonariosNov 8, 2026
- Alianza Valledupar 1-2 LlanerosNov 9, 2026
- Junior – CucutaNov 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Atletico Nacional a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Deportivo Pereira 9%. Atletico Nacional are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira?
1-0 (15.9%), followed by 2-0 (15.8%), 3-0 (10.5%), 1-1 (8.6%) and 2-1 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira?
The probability that both Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira score is 36%. Atletico Nacional have a 58% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Deportivo Pereira 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira?
The model expects 2.53 goals (1.99 for Atletico Nacional, 0.54 for Deportivo Pereira). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 23:10 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin.
What form are Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira in?
Atletico Nacional: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 3 conceded). Deportivo Pereira: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atletico Nacional, 1 for Deportivo Pereira and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Pereira 1-0 Atletico Nacional (Apr 25, 2026).
What was the Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Atletico Nacional 4-3 Deportivo Pereira. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Atletico Nacional was the model's favourite outcome (72%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
How is the Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.99 for Atletico Nacional, 0.54 for Deportivo Pereira) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Nacional predictions
- All Deportivo Pereira predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology