Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Sunday, November 8, 2026, 23:10 (UK time)
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Deportes Tolima 2-1 Millonarios. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Millonarios (53%), while victory for Deportes Tolima was rated at only 22%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.4%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.
Match analysis
Deportes Tolima and Millonarios met on Sunday, November 8, 2026, a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibague. Before kick-off, our model gave Deportes Tolima a 22% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Millonarios 53%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (13.3%), followed by 1-1 (12.0%) and 0-2 (10.4%).
Deportes Tolima have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Millonarios are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (1 win, 4 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Deportes Tolima score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Millonarios score 1.40 and concede 0.80. In the table, Deportes Tolima sit 11th with 23 points from 17 games, Millonarios 7th with 27 points from 17. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Deportes Tolima have averaged 0.90 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.57 for Millonarios.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Deportes Tolima, 3 for Millonarios and 0 draws. The most recent ended Millonarios 2-0 Deportes Tolima (Apr 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "Deportes Tolima or draw" stands at 47%, "Millonarios or draw" at 78% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Millonarios to edge Deportes Tolima (53% probability). In the table, Deportes Tolima (11th, 23 pts) host Millonarios (7th, 27 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 47%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Deportes Tolima – Millonarios. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima 0-1 Millonarios | 13.3% |
| Deportes Tolima 1-1 Millonarios | 12.0% |
| Deportes Tolima 0-2 Millonarios | 10.4% |
| Deportes Tolima 1-2 Millonarios | 9.4% |
| Deportes Tolima 0-0 Millonarios | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.90 expected goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.57 for Millonarios, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 45% and "both teams to score" at 47%. Deportes Tolima keep a clean sheet in 21% of scenarios, Millonarios in 41%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima expected goals | 0.90 |
| Millonarios expected goals | 1.57 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% |
| Deportes Tolima clean sheet | 21% |
| Millonarios clean sheet | 41% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Deportes Tolima
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Deportivo Pereira · Colombian Primera A | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Jaguares · Colombian Primera A | 2-3 | L |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Atletico Nacional · Colombian Primera A | 0-0 | D |
Millonarios
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | America de Cali · Colombian Primera A | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Jaguares · Colombian Primera A | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Barranquilla · Copa Colombia | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | 11 | 23 | 17 |
| Millonarios | 7 | 27 | 17 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Millonarios 2-0 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Deportes Tolima 3-1 Millonarios | Primera A |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Millonarios 2-0 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Millonarios 1-0 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Deportes Tolima 2-0 Millonarios | Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Deportes Tolima
No absences reported.
Millonarios
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Deportes Tolima
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Rovira5/5
- E. Valencia5/5
- H. E. Martinez Yepez5/5
- J. Hernandez5/5
- A. Parra Osorio4/5
- J. Mosquera4/5
- Neto Volpi4/5
- A. Angulo3/5
- Y. Osorio3/5
- E. Lopez2/5
- J. Mera2/5
Millonarios
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Burrai5/5
- S. Mosquera5/5
- A. Estupinan4/5
- D. Ruiz4/5
- D. Silva4/5
- J. Cuadrado4/5
- M. Samuel4/5
- S. Barreiro4/5
- S. Valencia4/5
- L. Castro3/5
- R. Urena3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Millonarios 0-0 America de CaliNov 5, 2026
- Chico 2-1 Internacional de BogotaNov 6, 2026
- Fortaleza FC 0-3 Independiente MedellinNov 7, 2026
- Once Caldas 1-0 Águilas DoradasNov 7, 2026
- Atletico Nacional 4-3 Deportivo PereiraNov 7, 2026
- America de Cali 0-0 Deportivo CaliNov 8, 2026
- Santa Fe 5-0 Deportivo PastoNov 8, 2026
- Jaguares 0-4 BucaramangaNov 8, 2026
- Alianza Valledupar 1-2 LlanerosNov 9, 2026
- Junior – CucutaNov 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Deportes Tolima a 22% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Millonarios 53%. Millonarios are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?
0-1 (13.3%), followed by 1-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.4%) and 0-0 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?
The probability that both Deportes Tolima and Millonarios score is 47%. Deportes Tolima have a 21% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Millonarios 41%.
How many goals should we expect in Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?
The model expects 2.47 goals (0.90 for Deportes Tolima, 1.57 for Millonarios). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 71%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 24%.
When and where is Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios played?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 23:10 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibague.
What form are Deportes Tolima and Millonarios in?
Deportes Tolima: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Millonarios: 1 win, 4 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Tolima and Millonarios?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Deportes Tolima, 3 for Millonarios and 0 draws. The most recent ended Millonarios 2-0 Deportes Tolima (Apr 24, 2026).
What was the Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Deportes Tolima 2-1 Millonarios. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Millonarios (53%), while victory for Deportes Tolima was rated at only 22%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.4%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.
How is the Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.90 for Deportes Tolima, 1.57 for Millonarios) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Deportes Tolima predictions
- All Millonarios predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology