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Colombian Primera AColombian Primera A· Kick-off : Sunday, November 8, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)

Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto: 5-0 result and AI prediction review

Santa FeSanta Fe5 – 0Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Santa Fe 5-0 Deportivo Pasto. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Santa Fe was the model's favourite outcome (53%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (26%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (22%): missed.

Match analysis

Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto was played on Sunday, November 8, 2026 (Colombian Primera A). Venue: Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin, Bogota. Before kick-off, our model gave Santa Fe a 53% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Deportivo Pasto 15%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (22.7%), ahead of 0-0 (19.6%) and 2-0 (13.2%).

Over their last 5 matches, Santa Fe have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Deportivo Pasto have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Santa Fe score 0.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Deportivo Pasto score 0.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Santa Fe sit 6th with 28 points from 17 games, Deportivo Pasto 18th with 15 points from 17. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Santa Fe have averaged 0.76 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.72 for Deportivo Pasto.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Santa Fe, 0 for Deportivo Pasto and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Pasto 1-2 Santa Fe (Apr 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "Santa Fe or draw" stands at 85%, "Deportivo Pasto or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 68%.

In short : Santa Fe are tipped by our AI model in this Santa Fe v Deportivo Pasto (53%). In the table, Santa Fe (6th, 28 pts) host Deportivo Pasto (18th, 15 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

53%
Santa Fe (Win)
32%
Draw
15%
Deportivo Pasto (Win)

Double chance

85%
Santa Fe or draw
47%
Deportivo Pasto or draw
68%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Santa Fe – Deportivo Pasto. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (22.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 75% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Santa Fe 1-0 Deportivo Pasto22.7%
Santa Fe 0-0 Deportivo Pasto19.6%
Santa Fe 2-0 Deportivo Pasto13.2%
Santa Fe 1-1 Deportivo Pasto10.7%
Santa Fe 0-1 Deportivo Pasto9.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.63 goals in total (1.16 for Santa Fe, 0.47 for Deportivo Pasto): over 2.5 goals has a 22% probability and both teams to score 26%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Santa Fe keep a clean sheet in 63% of scenarios, Deportivo Pasto in 31%.

Probability
Santa Fe expected goals1.16
Deportivo Pasto expected goals0.47
Both teams to score26%
Over 1.5 goals49%
Over 2.5 goals22%
Over 3.5 goals8%
Santa Fe clean sheet63%
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet31%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Santa Fe

DateOpponentScore
Nov 4, 2026Cucuta · Colombian Primera A0-1L
Nov 2, 2026Once Caldas · Copa Colombia0-2L
Oct 30, 2026Atletico Nacional · Colombian Primera A0-2L
Oct 27, 2026Bucaramanga · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Oct 22, 2026Jaguares · Colombian Primera A2-1W

Deportivo Pasto

DateOpponentScore
Nov 3, 2026Jaguares · Colombian Primera A2-0W
Oct 31, 2026Bucaramanga · Colombian Primera A1-2L
Oct 26, 2026Deportes Tolima · Colombian Primera A1-0W
Oct 23, 2026Atletico Nacional · Colombian Primera A0-3L
Oct 20, 2026Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Santa Fe62817
Deportivo Pasto181517

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 24, 2026Deportivo Pasto 1-2 Santa FeColombian Primera A

Out and doubtful

Santa Fe

No absences reported.

Deportivo Pasto

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Santa Fe

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. Olivera4/4
  • H. Palacios4/4
  • H. Rodallega4/4
  • J. Torres4/4
  • W. Asprilla4/4
  • D. Torres3/4
  • E. Rodriguez3/4
  • J. Obrian3/4
  • M. Puerta3/4
  • A. Zapata2/4
  • F. Fagundez2/4

Deportivo Pasto

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. C. Serje Orozco5/5
  • F. Leys5/5
  • F. Torijano5/5
  • G. Banguera5/5
  • M. Garavito5/5
  • N. Gil5/5
  • H. Mancilla4/5
  • J. Perlaza4/5
  • M. Gil4/5
  • D. Chavez3/5
  • J. Micolta Piedahita3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Santa Fe a 53% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Deportivo Pasto 15%. Santa Fe are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

1-0 (22.7%), followed by 0-0 (19.6%), 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (10.7%) and 0-1 (9.2%).

Will both teams score in Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

The probability that both Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto score is 26%. Santa Fe have a 63% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Deportivo Pasto 31%.

How many goals should we expect in Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

The model expects 1.63 goals (1.16 for Santa Fe, 0.47 for Deportivo Pasto). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 49%, over 2.5 goals 22%, over 3.5 goals 8%.

When and where is Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto played?

Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin, Bogota.

What form are Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto in?

Santa Fe: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded). Deportivo Pasto: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Santa Fe, 0 for Deportivo Pasto and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Pasto 1-2 Santa Fe (Apr 24, 2026).

What was the Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Santa Fe 5-0 Deportivo Pasto. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Santa Fe was the model's favourite outcome (53%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (26%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (22%): missed.

How is the Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.16 for Santa Fe, 0.47 for Deportivo Pasto) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained