Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 01:15 (UK time)
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bucaramanga 1-1 Atletico Nacional. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Nacional (40%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.3%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): correct.
Match analysis
Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional met on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Américo Montanini, Bucaramanga. Before kick-off, our model gave Bucaramanga a 31% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Atletico Nacional 40%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (13.3%), followed by 1-1 (13.3%) and 0-0 (11.3%).
Bucaramanga have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Nacional have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 3. Atletico Nacional therefore arrive in far better shape than Bucaramanga. On average Bucaramanga score 1.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Atletico Nacional score 2.20 and concede 0.60. In the table, Bucaramanga sit 4th with 28 points from 16 games, Atletico Nacional 1st with 35 points from 16. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Bucaramanga have averaged 1.07 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.10 for Atletico Nacional.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Bucaramanga, 1 for Atletico Nacional and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Nacional 2-0 Bucaramanga (Apr 21, 2026). In double chance terms, "Bucaramanga or draw" stands at 60%, "Atletico Nacional or draw" at 69% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Our model backs Atletico Nacional to edge Bucaramanga (40% probability). On recent form, Bucaramanga have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Atletico Nacional are in good shape (4 wins in 5). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bucaramanga – Atletico Nacional. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bucaramanga 0-1 Atletico Nacional | 13.3% |
| Bucaramanga 1-1 Atletico Nacional | 13.3% |
| Bucaramanga 0-0 Atletico Nacional | 11.3% |
| Bucaramanga 1-0 Atletico Nacional | 11.3% |
| Bucaramanga 0-2 Atletico Nacional | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.00 expected goals for Bucaramanga and 1.18 for Atletico Nacional, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 37% and "both teams to score" at 44%. Few goals are expected here. Bucaramanga keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Atletico Nacional in 37%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bucaramanga expected goals | 1.00 |
| Atletico Nacional expected goals | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% |
| Bucaramanga clean sheet | 31% |
| Atletico Nacional clean sheet | 37% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bucaramanga
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Chico · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | America de Cali · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
Atletico Nacional
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Cucuta · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chico · Colombian Primera A | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucaramanga | 4 | 28 | 16 |
| Atletico Nacional | 1 | 35 | 16 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Atletico Nacional 2-0 Bucaramanga | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Bucaramanga
No absences reported.
Atletico Nacional
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Bucaramanga
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Batalla5/5
- F. Charrupi5/5
- F. Sambueza5/5
- J. Ortiz5/5
- L. Pons5/5
- C. Fiermarin4/5
- F. Hinestroza4/5
- Fabry4/5
- J. Garcia4/5
- N. Castrillon4/5
- A. Gutierrez3/5
Atletico Nacional
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Cabrera4/5
- F. Armani4/5
- A. Roman3/5
- C. Haydar3/5
- E. Cardona3/5
- F. Marin3/5
- J. Campuzano3/5
- J. Rengifo3/5
- J. Rodriguez3/5
- N. Parra3/5
- S. Velasquez3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo Pereira 1-0 JaguaresOct 30, 2026
- Bucaramanga 2-1 Deportivo PastoOct 31, 2026
- Llaneros 3-2 JuniorOct 31, 2026
- Deportivo Cali 2-0 ChicoNov 1, 2026
- Independiente Medellin 2-1 Alianza ValleduparNov 1, 2026
- Águilas Doradas 1-0 Fortaleza FCNov 2, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira 1-3 Deportes TolimaNov 3, 2026
- Deportivo Pasto 2-0 JaguaresNov 3, 2026
- Cucuta 1-0 Santa FeNov 4, 2026
- Millonarios 0-0 America de CaliNov 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bucaramanga a 31% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Atletico Nacional 40%. Atletico Nacional are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional?
0-1 (13.3%), followed by 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.3%) and 0-2 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional?
The probability that both Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional score is 44%. Bucaramanga have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Nacional 37%.
How many goals should we expect in Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional?
The model expects 2.18 goals (1.00 for Bucaramanga, 1.18 for Atletico Nacional). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 64%, over 2.5 goals 37%, over 3.5 goals 18%.
When and where is Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional played?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 01:15 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Américo Montanini, Bucaramanga.
What form are Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional in?
Bucaramanga: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded). Atletico Nacional: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Bucaramanga, 1 for Atletico Nacional and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Nacional 2-0 Bucaramanga (Apr 21, 2026).
What was the Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bucaramanga 1-1 Atletico Nacional. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Nacional (40%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.3%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): correct.
How is the Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.00 for Bucaramanga, 1.18 for Atletico Nacional) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bucaramanga predictions
- All Atletico Nacional predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology