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Chilean Primera DivisiónChilean Primera División· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 28, 2026, 23:30 (UK time)

U. Catolica vs A. Italiano: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

U. CatolicaU. Catolica1 – 1A. ItalianoA. Italiano

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: U. Catolica 1-1 A. Italiano. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for U. Catolica (73%), while a draw was rated at only 16%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.

Match analysis

U. Catolica and A. Italiano met on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, a Chilean Primera División, matchday 24 fixture. Venue: San Carlos de Apoquindo, Santiago. Before kick-off, our model gave U. Catolica a 73% chance of winning, the draw 16% and A. Italiano 11%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (10.8%), followed by 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (8.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, U. Catolica have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, A. Italiano have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 3 and conceding 2. Both sides come in with similar form. On average U. Catolica score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; A. Italiano score 0.60 and concede 0.40. In the table, U. Catolica sit 3rd with 42 points from 24 games, A. Italiano 12th with 29 points from 24. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, U. Catolica have averaged 1.83 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.17 for A. Italiano.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for U. Catolica, 0 for A. Italiano and 0 draws. The most recent ended A. Italiano 3-4 U. Catolica (Apr 11, 2026). In double chance terms, "U. Catolica or draw" stands at 89%, "A. Italiano or draw" at 27% and "no draw" at 84%.

In short : U. Catolica are favourites for this U. Catolica v A. Italiano, with a 73% win probability from our model. On recent form, U. Catolica have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while A. Italiano have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

73%
U. Catolica (Win)
16%
Draw
11%
A. Italiano (Win)

Double chance

89%
U. Catolica or draw
27%
A. Italiano or draw
84%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as U. Catolica – A. Italiano. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
U. Catolica 2-0 A. Italiano10.8%
U. Catolica 2-1 A. Italiano9.4%
U. Catolica 3-0 A. Italiano8.9%
U. Catolica 1-0 A. Italiano8.8%
U. Catolica 3-1 A. Italiano7.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.47 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.87 for A. Italiano, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 65% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Goals look likely in this one. U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, A. Italiano in 9%.

Probability
U. Catolica expected goals2.47
A. Italiano expected goals0.87
Both teams to score53%
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
U. Catolica clean sheet42%
A. Italiano clean sheet9%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

U. Catolica

DateOpponentScore
Oct 25, 2026Union La Calera · Chilean Primera División1-3L
Sep 27, 2026Union La Calera · Copa Chile0-0D
Sep 24, 2026Union La Calera · Copa Chile1-1D
Sep 13, 2026Palestino · Chilean Primera División3-2W
Sep 5, 2026Everton de Vina · Chilean Primera División1-0W

A. Italiano

DateOpponentScore
Oct 24, 2026Huachipato · Chilean Primera División1-1D
Sep 26, 2026Colo Colo · Copa Chile0-1L
Sep 23, 2026Colo Colo · Copa Chile0-0D
Sep 14, 2026O'Higgins · Chilean Primera División1-0W
Sep 5, 2026Concepción · Chilean Primera División1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
U. Catolica34224
A. Italiano122924

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 11, 2026A. Italiano 3-4 U. CatolicaChilean Primera División

Out and doubtful

U. Catolica

No absences reported.

A. Italiano

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

U. Catolica

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Corral3/5
  • F. Zampedri3/5
  • F. Zuqui3/5
  • J. Valencia3/5
  • M. Palavecino3/5
  • S. Arancibia3/5
  • V. Bernedo3/5
  • A. Farias2/5
  • A. Garcia2/5
  • Agustín García Basso2/5
  • Branco Ampuero2/5

A. Italiano

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • C. Pinares3/5
  • D. Coelho3/5
  • F. Salomoni3/5
  • F. Troyansky3/5
  • M. Collao3/5
  • M. Ortiz3/5
  • R. Rebolledo3/5
  • T. Ahumada3/5
  • D. Monreal2/5
  • E. Ferrario2/5
  • G. Chiaverano2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the U. Catolica vs A. Italiano prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave U. Catolica a 73% chance of winning, the draw 16% and A. Italiano 11%. U. Catolica are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for U. Catolica vs A. Italiano?

2-0 (10.8%), followed by 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.8%) and 3-1 (7.7%).

Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs A. Italiano?

The probability that both U. Catolica and A. Italiano score is 53%. U. Catolica have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, A. Italiano 9%.

How many goals should we expect in U. Catolica vs A. Italiano?

The model expects 3.34 goals (2.47 for U. Catolica, 0.87 for A. Italiano). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 43%.

When and where is U. Catolica vs A. Italiano played?

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time), Chilean Primera División, matchday 24. Venue: San Carlos de Apoquindo, Santiago.

What form are U. Catolica and A. Italiano in?

U. Catolica: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). A. Italiano: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 2 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and A. Italiano?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for U. Catolica, 0 for A. Italiano and 0 draws. The most recent ended A. Italiano 3-4 U. Catolica (Apr 11, 2026).

What was the U. Catolica vs A. Italiano result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: U. Catolica 1-1 A. Italiano. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for U. Catolica (73%), while a draw was rated at only 16%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.

How is the U. Catolica vs A. Italiano prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.47 for U. Catolica, 0.87 for A. Italiano) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained