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Brasileirão Série ABrasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction: correct score and AI tips

Sao PauloSao Paulo–Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama

Match analysis

Sao Paulo take on Vasco DA Gama on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), a Brasileirão Série A, matchday 31 fixture. Venue: Morumbi, Sao Paulo. Our model makes Sao Paulo clear favourites: a 70% chance of winning, against 20% for the draw and 10% for Vasco DA Gama.

Over their last 5 matches, Sao Paulo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Vasco DA Gama are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 10 and conceding 1. Vasco DA Gama therefore arrive in far better shape than Sao Paulo. On average Sao Paulo score 1.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Vasco DA Gama score 2.00 and concede 0.20. In the table, Sao Paulo sit 10th with 39 points from 30 games, Vasco DA Gama 15th with 35 points from 29. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Sao Paulo have averaged 1.80 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.67 for Vasco DA Gama.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Sao Paulo, 3 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Sao Paulo (Apr 18, 2026). Sao Paulo out or doubtful: N. Bosshardt, Buta, Djhordney (suspended), D. Duarte, Ferreira and Luciano. Vasco DA Gama: Mateus Carvalho, F. Colidio (doubtful) and C. Cuesta (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Sao Paulo or draw" stands at 90%, "Vasco DA Gama or draw" at 30% and "no draw" at 80%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

70%
Sao Paulo (Win)
20%
Draw
10%
Vasco DA Gama (Win)

Double chance

90%
Sao Paulo or draw
30%
Vasco DA Gama or draw
80%
No draw

Exact score and goal markets 🔒

The most likely exact score, the top 5 scorelines, expected goals and the both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities are part of the full prediction. They will be published here as a review once the match is over.

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Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Sao Paulo

DateOpponentScore
Oct 11, 2026Vitoria · Brasileirão Série A2-1W
Oct 8, 2026Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A0-2L
Oct 3, 2026Santos · Brasileirão Série A1-2L
Sep 20, 2026Internacional · Brasileirão Série A1-0W
Sep 16, 2026Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana1-1D

Vasco DA Gama

DateOpponentScore
Oct 14, 2026Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana1-0W
Oct 10, 2026Remo · Brasileirão Série A0-0D
Oct 8, 2026Botafogo · Brasileirão Série A2-1W
Sep 20, 2026Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A5-0W
Sep 15, 2026Santa Fe · CONMEBOL Sudamericana2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Sao Paulo103930
Vasco DA Gama153529

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 18, 2026Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Sao PauloSerie A
Nov 2, 2025Vasco DA Gama 0-2 Sao PauloSerie A
Jun 13, 2025Sao Paulo 1-3 Vasco DA GamaSerie A
Oct 17, 2024Sao Paulo 3-0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A
Jun 23, 2024Vasco DA Gama 4-1 Sao PauloSerie A

Out and doubtful

Sao Paulo

  • N. Bosshardt (out)
  • Buta (out)
  • Djhordney (suspended)
  • D. Duarte (out)
  • Ferreira (out)
  • Luciano (out)

Vasco DA Gama

  • Mateus Carvalho (out)
  • F. Colidio (doubtful)
  • C. Cuesta (doubtful)

Most regular starters

Sao Paulo

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Artur5/5
  • D. Bobadilla3/5
  • Luciano3/5
  • Pedro Lima3/5
  • R. Arboleda3/5
  • Rafael3/5
  • Sabino3/5
  • Carlos Coronel2/5
  • G. Santana2/5
  • Iago2/5
  • Iago Borduchi2/5

Vasco DA Gama

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Léo Jardim5/5
  • Robert Renan5/5
  • Bruno Duarte4/5
  • Thiago Mendes4/5
  • Alan Lescano3/5
  • Alan Saldivia3/5
  • Cuiabano3/5
  • Facundo Colidio3/5
  • Paulo Henrique3/5
  • A. Saldivia2/5
  • Adson2/5

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Frequently asked questions

What is the Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction?

Our AI gives Sao Paulo a 70% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Vasco DA Gama 10%. Sao Paulo are therefore favourites.

When and where is Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama played?

Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 31. Venue: Morumbi, Sao Paulo.

What form are Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama in?

Sao Paulo: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded). Vasco DA Gama: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 1 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Sao Paulo, 3 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Sao Paulo (Apr 18, 2026).

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Key terms explained