Serie B· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Empoli vs Palermo: 2-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Empoli 2-4 Palermo. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Palermo at 83%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): correct.
Match analysis
Empoli and Palermo met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Serie B, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Carlo Castellani, Empoli. Before kick-off, our model gave Empoli a 5% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Palermo 83%. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (14.3%), followed by 0-3 (12.8%) and 0-1 (10.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Empoli have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Palermo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 14 and conceding 7. Palermo therefore arrive in far better shape than Empoli. On average Empoli score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Palermo score 2.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Empoli sit 13th with 6 points from 5 games, Palermo 1st with 13 points from 5. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Empoli have averaged 0.73 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.01 for Palermo.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Empoli, 2 for Palermo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Palermo 3-2 Empoli (Feb 7, 2026). In double chance terms, "Empoli or draw" stands at 17%, "Palermo or draw" at 95% and "no draw" at 88%.
In short : Palermo are favourites for this Empoli v Palermo, with a 83% win probability from our model. On recent form, Empoli have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Palermo are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Empoli – Palermo. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (14.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Empoli 0-2 Palermo | 14.3% |
| Empoli 0-3 Palermo | 12.8% |
| Empoli 0-1 Palermo | 10.6% |
| Empoli 0-4 Palermo | 8.7% |
| Empoli 1-2 Palermo | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.54 expected goals for Empoli and 2.70 for Palermo, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 63% and "both teams to score" at 39%. Goals look likely in this one. Empoli keep a clean sheet in 7% of scenarios, Palermo in 58%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Empoli expected goals | 0.54 |
| Palermo expected goals | 2.70 |
| Both teams to score | 39% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% |
| Empoli clean sheet | 7% |
| Palermo clean sheet | 58% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Empoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Modena · Serie B | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Arezzo · Serie B | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Carrarese · Serie B | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Mantova · Serie B | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cremonese · Serie B | 1-0 | W |
Palermo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Padova · Serie B | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Avellino · Serie B | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Sampdoria · Serie B | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Mantova · Coppa Italia | 5-2 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Arezzo · Serie B | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli | 13 | 6 | 5 |
| Palermo | 1 | 13 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Palermo 3-2 Empoli | Serie B |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Empoli 1-3 Palermo | Serie B |
Out and doubtful
Empoli
No absences reported.
Palermo
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Empoli
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Cauz5/5
- E. Saporiti5/5
- G. Yepes5/5
- J. Seghetti5/5
- L. Magnino5/5
- S. Shpendi5/5
- E. Biondini4/5
- J. Ceesay4/5
- M. Curto4/5
- M. Egan4/5
- N. Corrado4/5
Palermo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Ranocchia4/5
- J. Pohjanpalo4/5
- J. Segre4/5
- M. Bani4/5
- T. Augello4/5
- A. Palumbo3/5
- D. Johnsen3/5
- D. Vavassori3/5
- G. Strefezza3/5
- M. Fortin3/5
- N. Pierozzi3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Avellino 4-1 SampdoriaOct 9, 2026
- Benevento 2-0 CesenaOct 10, 2026
- Virtus Entella 1-1 Juve StabiaOct 10, 2026
- Sudtirol 0-0 AscoliOct 10, 2026
- Vicenza Virtus 0-3 PisaOct 10, 2026
- Arezzo 0-0 CremoneseOct 10, 2026
- Catanzaro 1-3 MantovaOct 11, 2026
- Padova 0-2 CarrareseOct 11, 2026
- Modena 3-2 Hellas VeronaOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Empoli vs Palermo prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Empoli a 5% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Palermo 83%. Palermo are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Empoli vs Palermo?
0-2 (14.3%), followed by 0-3 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.6%), 0-4 (8.7%) and 1-2 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Palermo?
The probability that both Empoli and Palermo score is 39%. Empoli have a 7% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Palermo 58%.
How many goals should we expect in Empoli vs Palermo?
The model expects 3.24 goals (0.54 for Empoli, 2.70 for Palermo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 63%, over 3.5 goals 41%.
When and where is Empoli vs Palermo played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie B, matchday 6. Venue: Carlo Castellani, Empoli.
What form are Empoli and Palermo in?
Empoli: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). Palermo: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Palermo?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Empoli, 2 for Palermo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Palermo 3-2 Empoli (Feb 7, 2026).
What was the Empoli vs Palermo result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Empoli 2-4 Palermo. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Palermo at 83%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): correct.
How is the Empoli vs Palermo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.54 for Empoli, 2.70 for Palermo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.