Süper Lig· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 11:30 (UK time)
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Süper Lig, matchday 8: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kicks off on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 11:30 (UK time). With a 67% win probability, Kasımpaşa go in as strong favourites against Samsunspor (13%), with the draw rated at 20%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.7%), ahead of 1-0 (12.6%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Kasımpaşa are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 5. Samsunspor have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Recent momentum is clearly with Kasımpaşa. On average Kasımpaşa score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Samsunspor score 1.20 and concede 2.20. In the table, Kasımpaşa sit 8th with 10 points from 6 games, Samsunspor 16th with 4 points from 6. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Kasımpaşa have averaged 1.16 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.31 for Samsunspor.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Kasımpaşa, 2 for Samsunspor and 1 draw. The most recent ended Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor (Jan 30, 2026). Kasımpaşa out or doubtful: K. Corekci and M. Ouanes (doubtful). Samsunspor: J. Assoumou, F. Kaya, O. Ohlenschlaeger, A. Sousa and E. Tavsan. In double chance terms, "Kasımpaşa or draw" stands at 87%, "Samsunspor or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Kasımpaşa are favourites for this Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor, with a 67% win probability from our model. In the table, Kasımpaşa (8th, 10 pts) host Samsunspor (16th, 4 pts). One to watch: Samsunspor will be without J. Assoumou and F. Kaya.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Kasımpaşa – Samsunspor. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kasımpaşa 2-0 Samsunspor | 12.7% |
| Kasımpaşa 1-0 Samsunspor | 12.6% |
| Kasımpaşa 2-1 Samsunspor | 9.6% |
| Kasımpaşa 1-1 Samsunspor | 9.6% |
| Kasımpaşa 3-0 Samsunspor | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.77 goals in total (2.01 for Kasımpaşa, 0.76 for Samsunspor): over 2.5 goals has a 52% probability and both teams to score 46%. Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Samsunspor in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Kasımpaşa expected goals | 2.01 |
| Samsunspor expected goals | 0.76 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Kasımpaşa clean sheet | 47% |
| Samsunspor clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Kasımpaşa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Konyaspor · Süper Lig | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. · Süper Lig | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Amed · Süper Lig | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Başakşehir · Süper Lig | 1-1 | D |
Samsunspor
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Çorum FK · Süper Lig | 1-5 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Kocaelispor · Süper Lig | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rizespor · Süper Lig | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Göztepe · Süper Lig | 3-3 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasımpaşa | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| Samsunspor | 16 | 4 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2026 | Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Samsunspor 0-0 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Samsunspor 0-2 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Kasımpaşa 1-4 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Kasımpaşa 1-0 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
Out and doubtful
Kasımpaşa
- K. Corekci (out)
- M. Ouanes (doubtful)
Samsunspor
- J. Assoumou (out)
- F. Kaya (out)
- O. Ohlenschlaeger (out)
- A. Sousa (out)
- E. Tavsan (out)
Most regular starters
Kasımpaşa
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Benedyczak4/4
- A. Gianniotis4/4
- C. Winck4/4
- K. Demirbay4/4
- M. Ilie4/4
- A. Karapo3/4
- A. Kol3/4
- E. Mendes3/4
- G. Yalcin3/4
- A. Arous2/4
- A. Baldursson2/4
Samsunspor
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Yuksel5/5
- E. Kilinc5/5
- J. Mendes5/5
- L. Tomasson5/5
- O. Kocuk5/5
- S. Jarju5/5
- Y. Kayan5/5
- G. Guarino3/5
- T. Borevkovic3/5
- A. B. Diabbate2/5
- E. Watt2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Çorum FK – RizesporOct 16, 2026
- Erzurumspor FK – EyüpsporOct 17, 2026
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. – GalatasarayOct 17, 2026
- Amed – KonyasporOct 17, 2026
- Fenerbahçe – AlanyasporOct 17, 2026
- Kocaelispor – GöztepeOct 18, 2026
- Başakşehir – Gaziantep FKOct 18, 2026
- Trabzonspor – BeşiktaşOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor prediction?
Our AI gives Kasımpaşa a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Samsunspor 13%. Kasımpaşa are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
2-0 (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (12.6%), 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.6%) and 3-0 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
The probability that both Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor score is 46%. Kasımpaşa have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Samsunspor 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
The model expects 2.77 goals (2.01 for Kasımpaşa, 0.76 for Samsunspor). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 11:30 (UK time), Süper Lig, matchday 8.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in?
Kasımpaşa: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). Samsunspor: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Kasımpaşa, 2 for Samsunspor and 1 draw. The most recent ended Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor (Jan 30, 2026).
How is the Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.01 for Kasımpaşa, 0.76 for Samsunspor) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Kasımpaşa predictions
- All Samsunspor predictions
- Süper Lig predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology