Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Farense vs AD Marco 09 prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Farense take on AD Marco 09 on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), a Taça de Portugal fixture. With a 61% win probability, Farense go in as strong favourites against AD Marco 09 (17%), with the draw rated at 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 2-0 (11.2%) and 1-1 (10.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Farense have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, AD Marco 09 have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 2. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Farense score 1.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; AD Marco 09 score 1.00 and concede 0.40.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Farense, 0 for AD Marco 09 and 0 draws. The most recent ended AD Marco 09 0-3 Farense (Oct 18, 2025). In double chance terms, "Farense or draw" stands at 83%, "AD Marco 09 or draw" at 39% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Our model backs Farense to edge AD Marco 09 (61% probability). On recent form, Farense have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while AD Marco 09 have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 50%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Farense – AD Marco 09. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Farense 1-0 AD Marco 09 | 11.8% |
| Farense 2-0 AD Marco 09 | 11.2% |
| Farense 1-1 AD Marco 09 | 10.4% |
| Farense 2-1 AD Marco 09 | 9.9% |
| Farense 3-0 AD Marco 09 | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.78 goals in total (1.90 for Farense, 0.88 for AD Marco 09): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 50%. Farense keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, AD Marco 09 in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Farense expected goals | 1.90 |
| AD Marco 09 expected goals | 0.88 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Farense clean sheet | 42% |
| AD Marco 09 clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Farense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sacavenense · Taça de Portugal | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AVS · Liga Portugal 2 | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Sporting CP B · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932 · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Porto B · Liga Portugal 2 | 3-1 | W |
AD Marco 09
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Guimaraes B · Liga 3 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | São João Ver · Liga 3 | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Régua · Taça de Portugal | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vianense · Liga 3 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Varzim · Liga 3 | 1-2 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | AD Marco 09 0-3 Farense | Taça de Portugal |
Out and doubtful
Farense
No absences reported.
AD Marco 09
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Farense
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Alex Pinto4/4
- F. Buntic4/4
- J. Resende4/4
- Mattheus4/4
- N. Zolotic4/4
- T. Herrero4/4
- A. Candeias3/4
- Claudio Falcao3/4
- Cuba3/4
- G. Silva3/4
- J. Nduquidi2/4
AD Marco 09
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- Chicao3/3
- Erivaldo3/3
- J. Gata3/3
- J. Guerrero3/3
- J. L. Araujo Guilherme3/3
- Ka3/3
- L. Garro3/3
- R. Barrett3/3
- T. Martins3/3
- B. Traore2/3
- F. Pacheco2/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Chaves – Os MarialvasOct 16, 2026
- Recreativa de Lamelas – GuimaraesOct 17, 2026
- Atlético CP – VizelaOct 17, 2026
- Florgrade – PortimonenseOct 17, 2026
- Vianense – LeixoesOct 17, 2026
- Sanjoanense – NacionalOct 17, 2026
- União de Leiria – BragançaOct 17, 2026
- Penafiel – LeçaOct 17, 2026
- Louletano – Rio AveOct 17, 2026
- Academica – AmaranteOct 17, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Farense vs AD Marco 09 prediction?
Our AI gives Farense a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AD Marco 09 17%. Farense are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Farense vs AD Marco 09?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Farense vs AD Marco 09?
The probability that both Farense and AD Marco 09 score is 50%. Farense have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AD Marco 09 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Farense vs AD Marco 09?
The model expects 2.78 goals (1.90 for Farense, 0.88 for AD Marco 09). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Farense vs AD Marco 09 played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal.
What form are Farense and AD Marco 09 in?
Farense: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded). AD Marco 09: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and AD Marco 09?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Farense, 0 for AD Marco 09 and 0 draws. The most recent ended AD Marco 09 0-3 Farense (Oct 18, 2025).
How is the Farense vs AD Marco 09 prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.90 for Farense, 0.88 for AD Marco 09) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Farense predictions
- All AD Marco 09 predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology