Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Florgrade vs Portimonense prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Taça de Portugal: Florgrade vs Portimonense kicks off on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). It is a tight call: 43% for Florgrade, 26% for the draw and 31% for Portimonense. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (8.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Florgrade have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 4 and conceding 2. Portimonense have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 6. Florgrade therefore arrive in far better shape than Portimonense. On average Florgrade score 0.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Portimonense score 0.60 and concede 1.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Florgrade and Portimonense: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Florgrade or draw" stands at 69%, "Portimonense or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Florgrade are tipped by our AI model in this Florgrade v Portimonense (43%). On recent form, Florgrade have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Portimonense have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Florgrade – Portimonense. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Florgrade 1-1 Portimonense | 12.5% |
| Florgrade 1-0 Portimonense | 10.7% |
| Florgrade 2-1 Portimonense | 8.8% |
| Florgrade 0-1 Portimonense | 8.8% |
| Florgrade 2-0 Portimonense | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.42 expected goals for Florgrade and 1.17 for Portimonense, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Florgrade keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Portimonense in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Florgrade expected goals | 1.42 |
| Portimonense expected goals | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Florgrade clean sheet | 31% |
| Portimonense clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Florgrade
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sanjoanense · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Camacha · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | São João Ver · Taça de Portugal | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guarda · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | União Lamas · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 1-1 | D |
Portimonense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tondela · Liga Portugal 2 | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União de Leiria · Liga Portugal 2 | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Leixoes · Liga Portugal 2 | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Benfica B · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vizela · Liga Portugal 2 | 2-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Florgrade and Portimonense: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Florgrade
No absences reported.
Portimonense
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Portimonense
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Dudu5/5
- Edney5/5
- S. Neves5/5
- Xavier5/5
- J. D. Pancadas Casimiro4/5
- J. Reis4/5
- Jarleysom4/5
- M. Junior4/5
- Mamede4/5
- D. Djassi3/5
- Duda3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Chaves – Os MarialvasOct 16, 2026
- Recreativa de Lamelas – GuimaraesOct 17, 2026
- Atlético CP – VizelaOct 17, 2026
- Vianense – LeixoesOct 17, 2026
- Farense – AD Marco 09Oct 17, 2026
- Sanjoanense – NacionalOct 17, 2026
- União de Leiria – BragançaOct 17, 2026
- Penafiel – LeçaOct 17, 2026
- Louletano – Rio AveOct 17, 2026
- Academica – AmaranteOct 17, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Florgrade vs Portimonense prediction?
Our AI gives Florgrade a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Portimonense 31%. Florgrade are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Florgrade vs Portimonense?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (8.8%), 0-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Florgrade vs Portimonense?
The probability that both Florgrade and Portimonense score is 52%. Florgrade have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Portimonense 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Florgrade vs Portimonense?
The model expects 2.59 goals (1.42 for Florgrade, 1.17 for Portimonense). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Florgrade vs Portimonense played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal.
What form are Florgrade and Portimonense in?
Florgrade: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 2 conceded). Portimonense: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Florgrade vs Portimonense prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.42 for Florgrade, 1.17 for Portimonense) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Florgrade predictions
- All Portimonense predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology