Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Sanjoanense vs Nacional prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Taça de Portugal: Sanjoanense vs Nacional kicks off on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). The edge goes to Sanjoanense (46%), ahead of the draw (28%) and a Nacional win (26%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.0%), ahead of 1-1 (12.9%) and 0-0 (10.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sanjoanense have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Nacional have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Sanjoanense. On average Sanjoanense score 1.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Nacional score 1.00 and concede 1.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sanjoanense and Nacional: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Sanjoanense or draw" stands at 74%, "Nacional or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Sanjoanense are favourites for this Sanjoanense v Nacional, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Sanjoanense have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Nacional are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sanjoanense – Nacional. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sanjoanense 1-0 Nacional | 14.0% |
| Sanjoanense 1-1 Nacional | 12.9% |
| Sanjoanense 0-0 Nacional | 10.4% |
| Sanjoanense 0-1 Nacional | 9.6% |
| Sanjoanense 2-0 Nacional | 9.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.26 goals in total (1.34 for Sanjoanense, 0.92 for Nacional): over 2.5 goals has a 39% probability and both teams to score 44%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Sanjoanense keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Nacional in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sanjoanense expected goals | 1.34 |
| Nacional expected goals | 0.92 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% |
| Sanjoanense clean sheet | 40% |
| Nacional clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sanjoanense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Florgrade · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Alpendorada · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Pacos de Brandao · Taça de Portugal | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Salgueiros · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Beira-Mar · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 1-1 | D |
Nacional
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca · Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP · Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Estrela · Primeira Liga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitória SC · Primeira Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril · Primeira Liga | 2-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sanjoanense and Nacional: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Sanjoanense
No absences reported.
Nacional
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Nacional
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Matheus Dias5/5
- Pablo Ruan5/5
- Wesley Gasolina5/5
- Leo Santos4/5
- M. Baeza4/5
- M. Jensen4/5
- R. Marin4/5
- Ze Vitor4/5
- Daniel Junior3/5
- F. Soares3/5
- Liziero3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Chaves – Os MarialvasOct 16, 2026
- Recreativa de Lamelas – GuimaraesOct 17, 2026
- Atlético CP – VizelaOct 17, 2026
- Florgrade – PortimonenseOct 17, 2026
- Vianense – LeixoesOct 17, 2026
- Farense – AD Marco 09Oct 17, 2026
- União de Leiria – BragançaOct 17, 2026
- Penafiel – LeçaOct 17, 2026
- Louletano – Rio AveOct 17, 2026
- Academica – AmaranteOct 17, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sanjoanense vs Nacional prediction?
Our AI gives Sanjoanense a 46% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Nacional 26%. Sanjoanense are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Sanjoanense vs Nacional?
1-0 (14.0%), followed by 1-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.4%).
Will both teams score in Sanjoanense vs Nacional?
The probability that both Sanjoanense and Nacional score is 44%. Sanjoanense have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Nacional 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Sanjoanense vs Nacional?
The model expects 2.26 goals (1.34 for Sanjoanense, 0.92 for Nacional). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 66%, over 2.5 goals 39%, over 3.5 goals 19%.
When and where is Sanjoanense vs Nacional played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal.
What form are Sanjoanense and Nacional in?
Sanjoanense: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded). Nacional: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded).
How is the Sanjoanense vs Nacional prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.34 for Sanjoanense, 0.92 for Nacional) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sanjoanense predictions
- All Nacional predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology