Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Louletano vs Rio Ave prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Louletano take on Rio Ave on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), a Taça de Portugal fixture. The edge goes to Louletano (49%), ahead of the draw (28%) and a Rio Ave win (23%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (15.8%), ahead of 1-1 (12.6%) and 0-0 (11.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Louletano have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Rio Ave have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 13. Recent momentum is clearly with Louletano. On average Louletano score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Rio Ave score 1.00 and concede 2.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Louletano and Rio Ave: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Louletano or draw" stands at 77%, "Rio Ave or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Louletano are favourites for this Louletano v Rio Ave, with a 49% win probability from our model. On recent form, Louletano have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Rio Ave have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Louletano – Rio Ave. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Louletano 1-0 Rio Ave | 15.8% |
| Louletano 1-1 Rio Ave | 12.6% |
| Louletano 0-0 Rio Ave | 11.8% |
| Louletano 2-0 Rio Ave | 10.6% |
| Louletano 0-1 Rio Ave | 9.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.14 goals in total (1.34 for Louletano, 0.80 for Rio Ave): over 2.5 goals has a 36% probability and both teams to score 41%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Louletano keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Rio Ave in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Louletano expected goals | 1.34 |
| Rio Ave expected goals | 0.80 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Louletano clean sheet | 45% |
| Rio Ave clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Louletano
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | União Santarém · Liga 3 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911 · Liga 3 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Castrense · Taça de Portugal | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Caldas · Liga 3 | 4-2 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses · Liga 3 | 1-3 | L |
Rio Ave
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela · Primeira Liga | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara · Primeira Liga | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Sporting CP · Primeira Liga | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estoril · Primeira Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Porto · Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Louletano and Rio Ave: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Louletano
No absences reported.
Rio Ave
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Louletano
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Teixeira3/3
- E. Mendes3/3
- G. Teixeira3/3
- Gabriel Passos3/3
- N. Martelo3/3
- S. Lemes3/3
- T. Correia3/3
- A. Dias2/3
- L. van der Gaag2/3
- Marcao2/3
- V. Goncalves2/3
Rio Ave
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Diogo Bezerra5/5
- E. van der Gouw5/5
- F. Petrasso5/5
- J. Blesa5/5
- T. Nikitscher5/5
- G. Liavas4/5
- Tamble4/5
- A. Ntoi3/5
- Gustavo Mancha3/5
- D. Nascimento2/5
- D. Spikic2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Atlético CP – VizelaOct 17, 2026
- Florgrade – PortimonenseOct 17, 2026
- Vianense – LeixoesOct 17, 2026
- Farense – AD Marco 09Oct 17, 2026
- Sanjoanense – NacionalOct 17, 2026
- União de Leiria – BragançaOct 17, 2026
- Penafiel – LeçaOct 17, 2026
- Academica – AmaranteOct 17, 2026
- CF Os Belenenses – AroucaOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Louletano vs Rio Ave prediction?
Our AI gives Louletano a 49% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Rio Ave 23%. Louletano are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Louletano vs Rio Ave?
1-0 (15.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.6%) and 0-1 (9.4%).
Will both teams score in Louletano vs Rio Ave?
The probability that both Louletano and Rio Ave score is 41%. Louletano have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Rio Ave 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Louletano vs Rio Ave?
The model expects 2.14 goals (1.34 for Louletano, 0.80 for Rio Ave). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Louletano vs Rio Ave played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal.
What form are Louletano and Rio Ave in?
Louletano: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Rio Ave: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 13 conceded).
How is the Louletano vs Rio Ave prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.34 for Louletano, 0.80 for Rio Ave) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Louletano predictions
- All Rio Ave predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology