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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Saturday, October 24, 2026, 20:30 (UK time)

São Bernardo vs Vila Nova: 3-2 result and AI prediction review

São BernardoSão Bernardo3 – 2Vila NovaVila Nova

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-0

Final score: São Bernardo 3-2 Vila Nova. The outcome was missed: the model favoured a draw (38%), while victory for São Bernardo was rated at only 30%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (27%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (18%): missed.

Match analysis

São Bernardo vs Vila Nova was played on Saturday, October 24, 2026 (Brasileirão Série B, matchday 35). Venue: Estadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do Campo. Before kick-off, our model gave São Bernardo a 30% chance of winning, the draw 38% and Vila Nova 32%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (23.5%), ahead of 0-1 (17.4%) and 1-0 (16.7%).

São Bernardo have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 6. Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Vila Nova. On average São Bernardo score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Vila Nova score 1.40 and concede 0.40. In the table, São Bernardo sit 12th with 46 points from 34 games, Vila Nova 1st with 62 points from 34. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, São Bernardo have averaged 0.78 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.67 for Vila Nova.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for São Bernardo, 1 for Vila Nova and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vila Nova 2-1 São Bernardo (Jul 6, 2026). In double chance terms, "São Bernardo or draw" stands at 68%, "Vila Nova or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 62%.

In short : An evenly-matched game between São Bernardo and Vila Nova: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, São Bernardo have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Vila Nova have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

30%
São Bernardo (Win)
38%
Draw
32%
Vila Nova (Win)

Double chance

68%
São Bernardo or draw
70%
Vila Nova or draw
62%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as São Bernardo – Vila Nova. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (23.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 76% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
São Bernardo 0-0 Vila Nova23.5%
São Bernardo 0-1 Vila Nova17.4%
São Bernardo 1-0 Vila Nova16.7%
São Bernardo 1-1 Vila Nova12.3%
São Bernardo 0-2 Vila Nova6.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.45 goals in total (0.71 for São Bernardo, 0.74 for Vila Nova): over 2.5 goals has a 18% probability and both teams to score 27%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. São Bernardo keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, Vila Nova in 49%.

Probability
São Bernardo expected goals0.71
Vila Nova expected goals0.74
Both teams to score27%
Over 1.5 goals43%
Over 2.5 goals18%
Over 3.5 goals6%
São Bernardo clean sheet48%
Vila Nova clean sheet49%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

São Bernardo

DateOpponentScore
Oct 18, 2026Criciuma · Brasileirão Série B0-1L
Oct 11, 2026Juventude · Brasileirão Série B2-2D
Oct 6, 2026Sport Recife · Brasileirão Série B1-2L
Oct 2, 2026CRB · Brasileirão Série B3-1W
Sep 25, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B0-0D

Vila Nova

DateOpponentScore
Oct 18, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B2-2D
Oct 11, 2026Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Oct 8, 2026Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B0-0D
Oct 3, 2026Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 26, 2026Londrina · Brasileirão Série B2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
São Bernardo124634
Vila Nova16234

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 6, 2026Vila Nova 2-1 São BernardoSerie B

Out and doubtful

São Bernardo

No absences reported.

Vila Nova

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

São Bernardo

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Alex Alves5/5
  • Felipe Garcia5/5
  • Jemerson5/5
  • Pedrinho5/5
  • Dudu Miraima4/5
  • Augusto3/5
  • Foguinho3/5
  • Rodrigo Ferreira3/5
  • Fabricio Daniel2/5
  • Helder Maciel2/5
  • Hugo Sanches2/5

Vila Nova

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Douglas Mendes5/5
  • Everton Galdino5/5
  • Hayner5/5
  • Helton Leite5/5
  • Janderson5/5
  • Marquinhos Gabriel5/5
  • Dudu4/5
  • Higor4/5
  • Joao Vieira4/5
  • Andre Luis3/5
  • Jonathan Costa3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the São Bernardo vs Vila Nova prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave São Bernardo a 30% chance of winning, the draw 38% and Vila Nova 32%. A draw is therefore the most likely outcome. Final score: 3-2.

What is the most likely correct score for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?

0-0 (23.5%), followed by 0-1 (17.4%), 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (12.3%) and 0-2 (6.4%).

Will both teams score in São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?

The probability that both São Bernardo and Vila Nova score is 27%. São Bernardo have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Vila Nova 49%.

How many goals should we expect in São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?

The model expects 1.45 goals (0.71 for São Bernardo, 0.74 for Vila Nova). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 43%, over 2.5 goals 18%, over 3.5 goals 6%.

When and where is São Bernardo vs Vila Nova played?

Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 20:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 35. Venue: Estadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do Campo.

What form are São Bernardo and Vila Nova in?

São Bernardo: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). Vila Nova: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 2 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between São Bernardo and Vila Nova?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for São Bernardo, 1 for Vila Nova and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vila Nova 2-1 São Bernardo (Jul 6, 2026).

What was the São Bernardo vs Vila Nova result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: São Bernardo 3-2 Vila Nova. The outcome was missed: the model favoured a draw (38%), while victory for São Bernardo was rated at only 30%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (27%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (18%): missed.

How is the São Bernardo vs Vila Nova prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.71 for São Bernardo, 0.74 for Vila Nova) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained