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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Saturday, October 24, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)

Sport Recife vs Criciuma: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

Sport RecifeSport Recife2 – 1CriciumaCriciuma

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Sport Recife 2-1 Criciuma. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sport Recife was the model's favourite outcome (40%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.

Match analysis

Sport Recife vs Criciuma was played on Saturday, October 24, 2026 (Brasileirão Série B, matchday 35). Venue: Ilha do Retiro, Recife. Before kick-off, our model gave Sport Recife a 40% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Criciuma 33%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.9%), ahead of 1-0 (11.3%) and 0-1 (9.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, Sport Recife have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Criciuma have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 1. Recent momentum is clearly with Criciuma. On average Sport Recife score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Criciuma score 1.40 and concede 0.20. In the table, Sport Recife sit 8th with 51 points from 34 games, Criciuma 5th with 59 points from 34. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Sport Recife have averaged 1.31 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.13 for Criciuma.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sport Recife, 2 for Criciuma and 3 draws. The most recent ended Criciuma 1-0 Sport Recife (Jul 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "Sport Recife or draw" stands at 67%, "Criciuma or draw" at 60% and "no draw" at 73%.

In short : Sport Recife and Criciuma meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 27%). On recent form, Sport Recife have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Criciuma are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

40%
Sport Recife (Win)
27%
Draw
33%
Criciuma (Win)

Double chance

67%
Sport Recife or draw
60%
Criciuma or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Sport Recife – Criciuma. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Sport Recife 1-1 Criciuma12.9%
Sport Recife 1-0 Criciuma11.3%
Sport Recife 0-1 Criciuma9.9%
Sport Recife 0-0 Criciuma8.7%
Sport Recife 2-1 Criciuma8.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.44 goals in total (1.30 for Sport Recife, 1.14 for Criciuma): over 2.5 goals has a 44% probability and both teams to score 50%. Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Criciuma in 27%.

Probability
Sport Recife expected goals1.30
Criciuma expected goals1.14
Both teams to score50%
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Sport Recife clean sheet32%
Criciuma clean sheet27%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Sport Recife

DateOpponentScore
Oct 17, 2026Fortaleza EC · Brasileirão Série B0-2L
Oct 11, 2026Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B1-1D
Oct 6, 2026São Bernardo · Brasileirão Série B2-1W
Oct 2, 2026Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B2-1W
Sep 26, 2026Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B1-3L

Criciuma

DateOpponentScore
Oct 18, 2026São Bernardo · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Oct 12, 2026America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Oct 8, 2026Ceara · Brasileirão Série B0-1L
Oct 3, 2026Londrina · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Sep 27, 2026Avai · Brasileirão Série B3-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Sport Recife85134
Criciuma55934

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 4, 2026Criciuma 1-0 Sport RecifeSerie B
Sep 10, 2023Sport Recife 3-3 CriciumaSerie B
May 25, 2023Criciuma 1-0 Sport RecifeSerie B
Aug 3, 2022Sport Recife 1-1 CriciumaSerie B
Apr 23, 2022Criciuma 1-1 Sport RecifeSerie B

Out and doubtful

Sport Recife

No absences reported.

Criciuma

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Sport Recife

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Chrystian Barletta5/5
  • Marcelo Ajul5/5
  • Thiago Couto5/5
  • Willian Oliveira5/5
  • Benevenuto4/5
  • Claudinho4/5
  • Juan Alano3/5
  • Neto Pessoa3/5
  • Patrick de Paula3/5
  • Rai3/5
  • de Pena Carlos2/5

Criciuma

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Airton5/5
  • Fellipe Mateus5/5
  • Jhonata Robert4/5
  • Luciano Castan4/5
  • Marcelo Hermes4/5
  • Nicolas4/5
  • R. Otero4/5
  • Rodrigo4/5
  • Ronald Lopes4/5
  • Jean Irmer3/5
  • Marcinho3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Sport Recife vs Criciuma prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Sport Recife a 40% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Criciuma 33%. Sport Recife are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Sport Recife vs Criciuma?

1-1 (12.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (8.7%) and 2-1 (8.4%).

Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Criciuma?

The probability that both Sport Recife and Criciuma score is 50%. Sport Recife have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Criciuma 27%.

How many goals should we expect in Sport Recife vs Criciuma?

The model expects 2.44 goals (1.30 for Sport Recife, 1.14 for Criciuma). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.

When and where is Sport Recife vs Criciuma played?

Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 35. Venue: Ilha do Retiro, Recife.

What form are Sport Recife and Criciuma in?

Sport Recife: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). Criciuma: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 1 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Criciuma?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sport Recife, 2 for Criciuma and 3 draws. The most recent ended Criciuma 1-0 Sport Recife (Jul 4, 2026).

What was the Sport Recife vs Criciuma result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Sport Recife 2-1 Criciuma. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sport Recife was the model's favourite outcome (40%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.

How is the Sport Recife vs Criciuma prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.30 for Sport Recife, 1.14 for Criciuma) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained