UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund kicks off on Tuesday, November 24, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Emirates Stadium, London. It is a tight call: 41% for Arsenal, 19% for the draw and 40% for Borussia Dortmund. On the correct score, 2-2 comes out on top (7.1%), followed by 2-1 (6.4%) and 1-2 (6.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Arsenal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 15 and conceding 4. Borussia Dortmund therefore arrive in far better shape than Arsenal. On average Arsenal score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Borussia Dortmund score 3.00 and concede 0.80. In the table, Arsenal sit 15th with 3 points from 1 games, Borussia Dortmund 12th with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Arsenal have averaged 2.05 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.42 for Borussia Dortmund.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Arsenal, 3 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws. The most recent ended Arsenal 2-3 Borussia Dortmund (Aug 9, 2026). Arsenal out or doubtful: C. Mosquera, W. Saliba and B. White. Borussia Dortmund: E. Can, M. Kaba, G. Konstantelias, J. Lerma and F. Mane. In double chance terms, "Arsenal or draw" stands at 60%, "Borussia Dortmund or draw" at 59% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 19%). In the table, Arsenal (15th, 3 pts) host Borussia Dortmund (12th, 3 pts). One to watch: Borussia Dortmund will be without E. Can and M. Kaba.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Arsenal – Borussia Dortmund. 2-2 is the single most likely scoreline (7.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 31% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Arsenal 2-2 Borussia Dortmund | 7.1% |
| Arsenal 2-1 Borussia Dortmund | 6.4% |
| Arsenal 1-2 Borussia Dortmund | 6.4% |
| Arsenal 1-1 Borussia Dortmund | 5.7% |
| Arsenal 3-2 Borussia Dortmund | 5.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.24 expected goals for Arsenal and 2.22 for Borussia Dortmund, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 82% and "both teams to score" at 80%. Goals look likely in this one. Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 11% of scenarios, Borussia Dortmund in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Arsenal expected goals | 2.24 |
| Borussia Dortmund expected goals | 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 65% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 11% |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich · EFL Cup | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Napoli · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Chelsea · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Villarreal · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | HEBC · DFB-Pokal | 5-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 15 | 3 | 1 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Arsenal 2-3 Borussia Dortmund | Emirates Cup |
| Nov 26, 2014 | Arsenal 2-0 Borussia Dortmund | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 16, 2014 | Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 6, 2013 | Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 22, 2013 | Arsenal 1-2 Borussia Dortmund | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Arsenal
- C. Mosquera (out)
- W. Saliba (out)
- B. White (out)
Borussia Dortmund
- E. Can (out)
- M. Kaba (out)
- G. Konstantelias (out)
- J. Lerma (out)
- F. Mane (out)
Most regular starters
Arsenal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Saka4/5
- D. Rice4/5
- E. Konsa4/5
- B. White3/5
- C. Tzolis3/5
- D. Raya3/5
- Gabriel3/5
- K. Havertz3/5
- M. Lewis-Skelly3/5
- M. Odegaard3/5
- R. Calafiori3/5
Borussia Dortmund
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Svensson5/5
- J. Ryerson5/5
- W. Anton5/5
- F. Nmecha4/5
- G. Kobel4/5
- J. Veerman4/5
- S. Guirassy4/5
- J. Gadou3/5
- M. Beier3/5
- E. Nwaneri2/5
- F. Mane2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund prediction?
Our AI gives Arsenal a 41% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Borussia Dortmund 40%. Arsenal are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
2-2 (7.1%), followed by 2-1 (6.4%), 1-2 (6.4%), 1-1 (5.7%) and 3-2 (5.3%).
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
The probability that both Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund score is 80%. Arsenal have a 11% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Borussia Dortmund 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model expects 4.46 goals (2.24 for Arsenal, 2.22 for Borussia Dortmund). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 82%, over 3.5 goals 65%.
When and where is Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund played?
Tuesday, November 24, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Emirates Stadium, London.
What form are Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund in?
Arsenal: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). Borussia Dortmund: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Arsenal, 3 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws. The most recent ended Arsenal 2-3 Borussia Dortmund (Aug 9, 2026).
How is the Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.24 for Arsenal, 2.22 for Borussia Dortmund) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Arsenal predictions
- All Borussia Dortmund predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
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- Our methodology