UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven kicks off on Tuesday, November 24, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites: a 81% chance of winning, against 10% for the draw and 9% for PSV Eindhoven. On the correct score, 3-1 comes out on top (6.7%), followed by 4-1 (6.7%) and 5-1 (5.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, PSV Eindhoven have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Real Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; PSV Eindhoven score 3.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, Real Madrid sit 14th with 3 points from 1 games, PSV Eindhoven 19th with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Real Madrid have averaged 2.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.59 for PSV Eindhoven.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Real Madrid and PSV Eindhoven: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Real Madrid out or doubtful: Eder Militao, F. Mendy and Rodrygo. PSV Eindhoven: S. Lammers, A. Nagalo, S. Ouaissa, A. Plea, J. Schouten and K. Sildillia. In double chance terms, "Real Madrid or draw" stands at 91%, "PSV Eindhoven or draw" at 19% and "no draw" at 90%.
In short : Real Madrid are tipped by our AI model in this Real Madrid v PSV Eindhoven (81%). On recent form, Real Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while PSV Eindhoven have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Real Madrid – PSV Eindhoven. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (6.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 29% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid 3-1 PSV Eindhoven | 6.7% |
| Real Madrid 4-1 PSV Eindhoven | 6.7% |
| Real Madrid 5-1 PSV Eindhoven | 5.3% |
| Real Madrid 2-1 PSV Eindhoven | 5.0% |
| Real Madrid 3-2 PSV Eindhoven | 4.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 4.00 expected goals for Real Madrid and 1.44 for PSV Eindhoven, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 91% and "both teams to score" at 75%. Goals look likely in this one. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, PSV Eindhoven in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid expected goals | 4.00 |
| PSV Eindhoven expected goals | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 97% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 79% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 24% |
| PSV Eindhoven clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Real Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Inter · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
PSV Eindhoven
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente · Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ajax · Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Utrecht · Eredivisie | 6-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 14 | 3 | 1 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 19 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Real Madrid and PSV Eindhoven: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Real Madrid
- Eder Militao (out)
- F. Mendy (out)
- Rodrygo (out)
PSV Eindhoven
- S. Lammers (out)
- A. Nagalo (out)
- S. Ouaissa (out)
- A. Plea (out)
- J. Schouten (out)
- K. Sildillia (out)
Most regular starters
Real Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Valverde5/5
- T. Courtois5/5
- D. Dumfries4/5
- D. Huijsen4/5
- I. Konate4/5
- J. Bellingham4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- Vinicius Junior4/5
- M. Cucurella3/5
- A. Guler2/5
- T. Alexander-Arnold2/5
PSV Eindhoven
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Obispo5/5
- G. Til5/5
- K. Sano5/5
- S. Dest5/5
- L. Geertruida4/5
- R. Pepi4/5
- R. van Bommel4/5
- M. Kovar3/5
- Mauro Junior3/5
- P. Wanner3/5
- I. Perisic2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven prediction?
Our AI gives Real Madrid a 81% chance of winning, the draw 10% and PSV Eindhoven 9%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven?
3-1 (6.7%), followed by 4-1 (6.7%), 5-1 (5.3%), 2-1 (5.0%) and 3-2 (4.8%).
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven?
The probability that both Real Madrid and PSV Eindhoven score is 75%. Real Madrid have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, PSV Eindhoven 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven?
The model expects 5.44 goals (4.00 for Real Madrid, 1.44 for PSV Eindhoven). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 97%, over 2.5 goals 91%, over 3.5 goals 79%.
When and where is Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven played?
Tuesday, November 24, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League.
What form are Real Madrid and PSV Eindhoven in?
Real Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded). PSV Eindhoven: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Real Madrid, 1.44 for PSV Eindhoven) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Real Madrid predictions
- All PSV Eindhoven predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology