UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Manchester City vs Napoli prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Manchester City vs Napoli kicks off on Tuesday, November 24, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester. With a 91% win probability, Manchester City go in as strong favourites against Napoli (3%), with the draw rated at 6%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (9.4%), ahead of 4-0 (9.4%) and 5-0 (7.5%).
Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 3. Napoli have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Manchester City. On average Manchester City score 2.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Napoli score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Manchester City sit 8th with 3 points from 1 games, Napoli 27th with 0 points from 1. 19 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Manchester City have averaged 2.09 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.60 for Napoli.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester City, 0 for Napoli and 0 draws. The most recent ended Manchester City 2-0 Napoli (Sep 18, 2025). Manchester City out or doubtful: P. Foden (suspended). Napoli: Alisson Santos, A. Buongiorno, Giovane, L. Marianucci, S. McTominay, A. Meret and L. Spinazzola. In double chance terms, "Manchester City or draw" stands at 97%, "Napoli or draw" at 9% and "no draw" at 94%.
In short : Manchester City are favourites for this Manchester City v Napoli, with a 91% win probability from our model. On recent form, Manchester City are in good shape (5 wins in 5) while Napoli have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. One to watch: Napoli will be without Alisson Santos and A. Buongiorno.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Manchester City – Napoli. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester City 3-0 Napoli | 9.4% |
| Manchester City 4-0 Napoli | 9.4% |
| Manchester City 5-0 Napoli | 7.5% |
| Manchester City 2-0 Napoli | 7.1% |
| Manchester City 3-1 Napoli | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.73 goals in total (4.00 for Manchester City, 0.73 for Napoli): over 2.5 goals has a 85% probability and both teams to score 51%. Everything points to an open game. Manchester City keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, Napoli in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Manchester City expected goals | 4.00 |
| Napoli expected goals | 0.73 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 70% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 48% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Manchester City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 5-3 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Norwich · EFL Cup | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester United · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | FC Porto · UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Coventry · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
Napoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal · UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| Napoli | 27 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2025 | Manchester City 2-0 Napoli | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Manchester City
- P. Foden (suspended)
Napoli
- Alisson Santos (out)
- A. Buongiorno (out)
- Giovane (out)
- L. Marianucci (out)
- S. McTominay (out)
- A. Meret (out)
- L. Spinazzola (out)
Most regular starters
Manchester City
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- R. Cherki5/5
- A. Semenyo4/5
- E. Haaland4/5
- G. Donnarumma4/5
- J. Gvardiol4/5
- E. Anderson3/5
- E. Fernandez3/5
- M. Guehi3/5
- R. Dias3/5
- A. Bouaddi2/5
- A. Khusanov2/5
Napoli
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rrahmani4/5
- G. Di Lorenzo4/5
- M. Politano4/5
- R. Hojlund4/5
- R. Marin4/5
- S. Lobotka4/5
- A. Meret3/5
- A. Vergara2/5
- Alisson Santos2/5
- B. Gilmour2/5
- F. Anguissa2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Manchester City vs Napoli prediction?
Our AI gives Manchester City a 91% chance of winning, the draw 6% and Napoli 3%. Manchester City are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Manchester City vs Napoli?
3-0 (9.4%), followed by 4-0 (9.4%), 5-0 (7.5%), 2-0 (7.1%) and 3-1 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Napoli?
The probability that both Manchester City and Napoli score is 51%. Manchester City have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Napoli 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Manchester City vs Napoli?
The model expects 4.73 goals (4.00 for Manchester City, 0.73 for Napoli). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 85%, over 3.5 goals 70%.
When and where is Manchester City vs Napoli played?
Tuesday, November 24, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester.
What form are Manchester City and Napoli in?
Manchester City: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 3 conceded). Napoli: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester City and Napoli?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester City, 0 for Napoli and 0 draws. The most recent ended Manchester City 2-0 Napoli (Sep 18, 2025).
How is the Manchester City vs Napoli prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Manchester City, 0.73 for Napoli) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Manchester City predictions
- All Napoli predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology