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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

RB Leipzig vs Lens prediction: correct score and AI tips

RB LeipzigRB Leipzig–LensLens

Match analysis

UEFA Champions League: the RB Leipzig vs Lens match is scheduled on Tuesday, November 24, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig. With a 63% win probability, Lens go in as strong favourites against RB Leipzig (21%), with the draw rated at 16%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (7.0%), ahead of 1-3 (6.9%) and 2-2 (6.0%).

Over their last 5 matches, RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Lens have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average RB Leipzig score 2.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Lens score 1.40 and concede 1.80. In the table, RB Leipzig sit 32nd with 0 points from 1 games, Lens 10th with 3 points from 1. 22 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, RB Leipzig have averaged 2.63 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.92 for Lens.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between RB Leipzig and Lens: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. RB Leipzig out or doubtful: C. Baumgartner, M. Guiu, A. Ouedraogo and R. Reitz. Lens: S. Abdulhamid, S. Baidoo, J. Chavez, M. Nawrocki and Y. Titraoui. In double chance terms, "RB Leipzig or draw" stands at 37%, "Lens or draw" at 79% and "no draw" at 84%.

In short : Lens are favourites for this RB Leipzig v Lens, with a 63% win probability from our model. On recent form, RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Lens have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. One to watch: Lens will be without S. Abdulhamid and S. Baidoo.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

21%
RB Leipzig (Win)
16%
Draw
63%
Lens (Win)

Double chance

37%
RB Leipzig or draw
79%
Lens or draw
84%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as RB Leipzig – Lens. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (7.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 31% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
RB Leipzig 1-2 Lens7.0%
RB Leipzig 1-3 Lens6.9%
RB Leipzig 2-2 Lens6.0%
RB Leipzig 2-3 Lens5.9%
RB Leipzig 1-4 Lens5.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 4.66 goals in total (1.71 for RB Leipzig, 2.95 for Lens): over 2.5 goals has a 84% probability and both teams to score 78%. Everything points to an open game. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Lens in 18%.

Probability
RB Leipzig expected goals1.71
Lens expected goals2.95
Both teams to score78%
Over 1.5 goals95%
Over 2.5 goals84%
Over 3.5 goals68%
RB Leipzig clean sheet5%
Lens clean sheet18%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

RB Leipzig

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga0-2L
Sep 13, 2026Hamburger SV · Bundesliga5-0W
Sep 10, 2026Como · UEFA Champions League1-4L
Sep 5, 2026Werder Bremen · Bundesliga1-3L
Aug 29, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga3-0W

Lens

DateOpponentScore
Sep 18, 2026Monaco · Ligue 11-2L
Sep 13, 2026Le Mans · Ligue 12-2D
Sep 10, 2026Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League3-2W
Sep 5, 2026Lorient · Ligue 10-1L
Aug 29, 2026Strasbourg · Ligue 11-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
RB Leipzig3201
Lens1031

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between RB Leipzig and Lens: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

RB Leipzig

  • C. Baumgartner (out)
  • M. Guiu (out)
  • A. Ouedraogo (out)
  • R. Reitz (out)

Lens

  • S. Abdulhamid (out)
  • S. Baidoo (out)
  • J. Chavez (out)
  • M. Nawrocki (out)
  • Y. Titraoui (out)

Most regular starters

RB Leipzig

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Nusa5/5
  • D. Raum5/5
  • M. Vandevoordt5/5
  • E. Banzuzi4/5
  • N. El Aynaoui4/5
  • R. Baku4/5
  • B. Gruda3/5
  • C. Lukeba3/5
  • C. Nkunku3/5
  • N. Seiwald3/5
  • W. Orban3/5

Lens

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Abdallah Sima3/5
  • Florian Thauvin3/5
  • Matthieu Udol3/5
  • Robin Risser3/5
  • A. Haidara2/5
  • A. Sima2/5
  • F. Thauvin2/5
  • Ismaelo Ganiou2/5
  • K. Antonio2/5
  • Kyllian Antonio2/5
  • M. Udol2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the RB Leipzig vs Lens prediction?

Our AI gives RB Leipzig a 21% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Lens 63%. Lens are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for RB Leipzig vs Lens?

1-2 (7.0%), followed by 1-3 (6.9%), 2-2 (6.0%), 2-3 (5.9%) and 1-4 (5.1%).

Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Lens?

The probability that both RB Leipzig and Lens score is 78%. RB Leipzig have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lens 18%.

How many goals should we expect in RB Leipzig vs Lens?

The model expects 4.66 goals (1.71 for RB Leipzig, 2.95 for Lens). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 84%, over 3.5 goals 68%.

When and where is RB Leipzig vs Lens played?

Tuesday, November 24, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig.

What form are RB Leipzig and Lens in?

RB Leipzig: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded). Lens: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded).

How is the RB Leipzig vs Lens prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.71 for RB Leipzig, 2.95 for Lens) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained