UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, January 27, 2027, 20:00 (UK time)
Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens FC prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens FC kicks off on Wednesday, January 27, 2027 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. Our model makes Borussia Dortmund clear favourites: a 84% chance of winning, against 9% for the draw and 7% for AEK Athens FC. On the correct score, 3-1 comes out on top (7.6%), followed by 4-1 (7.1%) and 3-0 (6.9%).
Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 15 and conceding 4. AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 17 and conceding 2. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Borussia Dortmund score 3.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; AEK Athens FC score 3.40 and concede 0.40. In the table, Borussia Dortmund sit 12th with 3 points from 1 games, AEK Athens FC 16th with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Borussia Dortmund have averaged 2.42 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.71 for AEK Athens FC.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Borussia Dortmund and AEK Athens FC: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Borussia Dortmund out or doubtful: E. Can, M. Kaba, G. Konstantelias, J. Lerma and F. Mane. In double chance terms, "Borussia Dortmund or draw" stands at 93%, "AEK Athens FC or draw" at 16% and "no draw" at 91%.
In short : Our model backs Borussia Dortmund to edge AEK Athens FC (84% probability). In the table, Borussia Dortmund (12th, 3 pts) host AEK Athens FC (16th, 3 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 86%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Borussia Dortmund – AEK Athens FC. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 34% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund 3-1 AEK Athens FC | 7.6% |
| Borussia Dortmund 4-1 AEK Athens FC | 7.1% |
| Borussia Dortmund 3-0 AEK Athens FC | 6.9% |
| Borussia Dortmund 4-0 AEK Athens FC | 6.4% |
| Borussia Dortmund 2-1 AEK Athens FC | 6.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.72 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.11 for AEK Athens FC, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 86% and "both teams to score" at 65%. Goals look likely in this one. Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, AEK Athens FC in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund expected goals | 3.72 |
| AEK Athens FC expected goals | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71% |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 33% |
| AEK Athens FC clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Villarreal · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | HEBC · DFB-Pokal | 5-0 | W |
AEK Athens FC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Panserraikos · Cup | 8-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis · Super League 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lask Linz · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis · Super League 1 | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Nestos Chrisoupolis · Cup | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 3 | 1 |
| AEK Athens FC | 16 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Borussia Dortmund and AEK Athens FC: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Borussia Dortmund
- E. Can (out)
- M. Kaba (out)
- G. Konstantelias (out)
- J. Lerma (out)
- F. Mane (out)
AEK Athens FC
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Borussia Dortmund
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Svensson5/5
- J. Ryerson5/5
- W. Anton5/5
- F. Nmecha4/5
- G. Kobel4/5
- J. Veerman4/5
- S. Guirassy4/5
- J. Gadou3/5
- M. Beier3/5
- E. Nwaneri2/5
- F. Mane2/5
AEK Athens FC
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Brignoli3/4
- H. Moukoudi3/4
- L. Majer3/4
- L. Rota3/4
- R. Marin3/4
- B. Varga2/4
- F. Relvas2/4
- K. Arriaga2/4
- L. Jovic2/4
- M. Gacinovic2/4
- M. Vitalis2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens FC prediction?
Our AI gives Borussia Dortmund a 84% chance of winning, the draw 9% and AEK Athens FC 7%. Borussia Dortmund are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens FC?
3-1 (7.6%), followed by 4-1 (7.1%), 3-0 (6.9%), 4-0 (6.4%) and 2-1 (6.1%).
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens FC?
The probability that both Borussia Dortmund and AEK Athens FC score is 65%. Borussia Dortmund have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AEK Athens FC 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens FC?
The model expects 4.83 goals (3.72 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.11 for AEK Athens FC). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 71%.
When and where is Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens FC played?
Wednesday, January 27, 2027 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and AEK Athens FC in?
Borussia Dortmund: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 4 conceded). AEK Athens FC: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 2 conceded).
How is the Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens FC prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.72 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.11 for AEK Athens FC) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Borussia Dortmund predictions
- All AEK Athens FC predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology