UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, January 27, 2027, 20:00 (UK time)
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid kicks off on Wednesday, January 27, 2027 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Stamford Bridge, London. Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites: a 90% chance of winning, against 7% for the draw and 3% for Shakhtar Donetsk. On the correct score, 0-3 comes out on top (8.9%), followed by 0-4 (8.9%) and 0-5 (7.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Shakhtar Donetsk have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Shakhtar Donetsk score 1.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Real Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Shakhtar Donetsk sit 18th with 1 points from 1 games, Real Madrid 14th with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Shakhtar Donetsk and Real Madrid: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Real Madrid: Eder Militao, F. Mendy and Rodrygo. In double chance terms, "Shakhtar Donetsk or draw" stands at 10%, "Real Madrid or draw" at 97% and "no draw" at 93%.
In short : Real Madrid are tipped by our AI model in this Shakhtar Donetsk v Real Madrid (90%). On recent form, Shakhtar Donetsk have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Real Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-3.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Shakhtar Donetsk – Real Madrid. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (8.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk 0-3 Real Madrid | 8.9% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 0-4 Real Madrid | 8.9% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 0-5 Real Madrid | 7.1% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 1-3 Real Madrid | 7.0% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 1-4 Real Madrid | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.79 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 4.00 for Real Madrid, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 86% and "both teams to score" at 54%. Goals look likely in this one. Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Real Madrid in 45%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk expected goals | 0.79 |
| Real Madrid expected goals | 4.00 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 70% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet | 2% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 45% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Shakhtar Donetsk
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Vilkhivtsi · Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Chornomorets · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Karpaty · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Polessya · Premier League | 0-2 | L |
Real Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Inter · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 18 | 1 | 1 |
| Real Madrid | 14 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Shakhtar Donetsk and Real Madrid: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Shakhtar Donetsk
No absences reported.
Real Madrid
- Eder Militao (out)
- F. Mendy (out)
- Rodrygo (out)
Most regular starters
Shakhtar Donetsk
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Riznyk4/4
- O. Ocheretko4/4
- M. Matvienko3/4
- Newerton3/4
- Pedro Henrique3/4
- V. Bondar3/4
- A. Ghram2/4
- G. Mendoza2/4
- Luca Meirelles2/4
- Marlon Gomes2/4
- O. Karavaev2/4
Real Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Valverde5/5
- T. Courtois5/5
- D. Dumfries4/5
- D. Huijsen4/5
- I. Konate4/5
- J. Bellingham4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- Vinicius Junior4/5
- M. Cucurella3/5
- A. Guler2/5
- T. Alexander-Arnold2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid prediction?
Our AI gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 3% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Real Madrid 90%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid?
0-3 (8.9%), followed by 0-4 (8.9%), 0-5 (7.1%), 1-3 (7.0%) and 1-4 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid?
The probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Real Madrid score is 54%. Shakhtar Donetsk have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Madrid 45%.
How many goals should we expect in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid?
The model expects 4.79 goals (0.79 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 4.00 for Real Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 70%.
When and where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid played?
Wednesday, January 27, 2027 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Stamford Bridge, London.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Real Madrid in?
Shakhtar Donetsk: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded). Real Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.79 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 4.00 for Real Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Shakhtar Donetsk predictions
- All Real Madrid predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
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