UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, January 20, 2027, 20:00 (UK time)
Manchester United vs Bayern München prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Manchester United take on Bayern München on Wednesday, January 20, 2027 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester. Our model makes Bayern München clear favourites: a 63% chance of winning, against 19% for the draw and 18% for Manchester United. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (9.7%), followed by 0-2 (8.5%) and 1-1 (8.4%).
Manchester United have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 7. Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 18 and conceding 2. Bayern München therefore arrive in far better shape than Manchester United. On average Manchester United score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Bayern München score 3.60 and concede 0.40. In the table, Manchester United sit 4th with 3 points from 1 games, Bayern München 2nd with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Manchester United have averaged 1.10 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.38 for Bayern München.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Manchester United and Bayern München: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Manchester United out or doubtful: A. Diallo, T. Heaton, B. Sesko, M. Ugarte and M. de Ligt. Bayern München: T. Buchmann. In double chance terms, "Manchester United or draw" stands at 37%, "Bayern München or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Our model backs Bayern München to edge Manchester United (63% probability). In the table, Manchester United (4th, 3 pts) host Bayern München (2nd, 3 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 67%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Manchester United – Bayern München. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester United 1-2 Bayern München | 9.7% |
| Manchester United 0-2 Bayern München | 8.5% |
| Manchester United 1-1 Bayern München | 8.4% |
| Manchester United 1-3 Bayern München | 7.4% |
| Manchester United 0-1 Bayern München | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.14 expected goals for Manchester United and 2.30 for Bayern München, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 67% and "both teams to score" at 61%. Goals look likely in this one. Manchester United keep a clean sheet in 10% of scenarios, Bayern München in 32%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Manchester United expected goals | 1.14 |
| Bayern München expected goals | 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 10% |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 32% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Manchester United
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Brighton · EFL Cup | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
Bayern München
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 7-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | VfL Osnabrück · DFB-Pokal | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Bayern München | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Manchester United and Bayern München: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Manchester United
- A. Diallo (out)
- T. Heaton (out)
- B. Sesko (out)
- M. Ugarte (out)
- M. de Ligt (out)
Bayern München
- T. Buchmann (out)
Most regular starters
Manchester United
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Y. Tielemans5/5
- B. Mbeumo4/5
- K. Mainoo4/5
- M. Rashford4/5
- S. Lammens4/5
- H. Maguire3/5
- B. Fernandes2/5
- B. Šeško2/5
- Bruno Fernandes2/5
- D. Dalot2/5
- Diogo Dalot2/5
Bayern München
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Upamecano4/5
- H. Kane4/5
- J. Kimmich4/5
- J. Tah4/5
- M. Olise4/5
- A. Davies3/5
- I. Saibari3/5
- M. Neuer3/5
- N. Brown3/5
- A. Pavlovic2/5
- A. Pavlović2/5
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Manchester United vs Bayern München prediction?
Our AI gives Manchester United a 18% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Bayern München 63%. Bayern München are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Manchester United vs Bayern München?
1-2 (9.7%), followed by 0-2 (8.5%), 1-1 (8.4%), 1-3 (7.4%) and 0-1 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Bayern München?
The probability that both Manchester United and Bayern München score is 61%. Manchester United have a 10% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bayern München 32%.
How many goals should we expect in Manchester United vs Bayern München?
The model expects 3.44 goals (1.14 for Manchester United, 2.30 for Bayern München). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Manchester United vs Bayern München played?
Wednesday, January 20, 2027 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester.
What form are Manchester United and Bayern München in?
Manchester United: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Bayern München: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (18 scored, 2 conceded).
How is the Manchester United vs Bayern München prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.14 for Manchester United, 2.30 for Bayern München) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Manchester United predictions
- All Bayern München predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology