UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, January 20, 2027, 20:00 (UK time)
RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicks off on Wednesday, January 20, 2027 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig. Our model makes RB Leipzig clear favourites: a 83% chance of winning, against 10% for the draw and 7% for Shakhtar Donetsk. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (8.9%), followed by 3-1 (8.0%) and 2-0 (8.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Shakhtar Donetsk have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Shakhtar Donetsk therefore arrive in far better shape than RB Leipzig. On average RB Leipzig score 2.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Shakhtar Donetsk score 1.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, RB Leipzig sit 32nd with 0 points from 1 games, Shakhtar Donetsk 18th with 1 points from 1. 14 places separate the two sides.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between RB Leipzig and Shakhtar Donetsk: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. RB Leipzig out or doubtful: C. Baumgartner, M. Guiu, A. Ouedraogo and R. Reitz. In double chance terms, "RB Leipzig or draw" stands at 93%, "Shakhtar Donetsk or draw" at 17% and "no draw" at 90%.
In short : RB Leipzig are tipped by our AI model in this RB Leipzig v Shakhtar Donetsk (83%). On recent form, RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Shakhtar Donetsk have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as RB Leipzig – Shakhtar Donetsk. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (8.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig 3-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | 8.9% |
| RB Leipzig 3-1 Shakhtar Donetsk | 8.0% |
| RB Leipzig 2-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | 8.0% |
| RB Leipzig 4-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | 7.5% |
| RB Leipzig 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.35 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 0.90 for Shakhtar Donetsk, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 80% and "both teams to score" at 57%. Goals look likely in this one. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Shakhtar Donetsk in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig expected goals | 3.35 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk expected goals | 0.90 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 41% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Como · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
Shakhtar Donetsk
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Vilkhivtsi · Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Chornomorets · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Karpaty · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Polessya · Premier League | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 32 | 0 | 1 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 18 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between RB Leipzig and Shakhtar Donetsk: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
RB Leipzig
- C. Baumgartner (out)
- M. Guiu (out)
- A. Ouedraogo (out)
- R. Reitz (out)
Shakhtar Donetsk
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
RB Leipzig
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Nusa5/5
- D. Raum5/5
- M. Vandevoordt5/5
- E. Banzuzi4/5
- N. El Aynaoui4/5
- R. Baku4/5
- B. Gruda3/5
- C. Lukeba3/5
- C. Nkunku3/5
- N. Seiwald3/5
- W. Orban3/5
Shakhtar Donetsk
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Riznyk4/4
- O. Ocheretko4/4
- M. Matvienko3/4
- Newerton3/4
- Pedro Henrique3/4
- V. Bondar3/4
- A. Ghram2/4
- G. Mendoza2/4
- Luca Meirelles2/4
- Marlon Gomes2/4
- O. Karavaev2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction?
Our AI gives RB Leipzig a 83% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Shakhtar Donetsk 7%. RB Leipzig are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
3-0 (8.9%), followed by 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (8.0%), 4-0 (7.5%) and 2-1 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
The probability that both RB Leipzig and Shakhtar Donetsk score is 57%. RB Leipzig have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Shakhtar Donetsk 4%.
How many goals should we expect in RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
The model expects 4.25 goals (3.35 for RB Leipzig, 0.90 for Shakhtar Donetsk). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 80%, over 3.5 goals 61%.
When and where is RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?
Wednesday, January 20, 2027 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig.
What form are RB Leipzig and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
RB Leipzig: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded). Shakhtar Donetsk: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.35 for RB Leipzig, 0.90 for Shakhtar Donetsk) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All RB Leipzig predictions
- All Shakhtar Donetsk predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology