UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 23, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)
FC Lugano vs Dukagjini: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: FC Lugano 1-0 Dukagjini. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for FC Lugano at 51%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
Match analysis
FC Lugano and Dukagjini met on Thursday, July 23, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: AIL Arena, Lugano. Before kick-off, our model gave FC Lugano a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Dukagjini 24%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, FC Lugano have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Dukagjini have won just one of their last 2 matches (1 draw, 0 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 3. On average FC Lugano score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Dukagjini score 2.00 and concede 1.50.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Lugano and Dukagjini: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "FC Lugano or draw" stands at 76%, "Dukagjini or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FC Lugano – Dukagjini. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Lugano 1-1 Dukagjini | 11.8% |
| FC Lugano 1-0 Dukagjini | 11.4% |
| FC Lugano 2-1 Dukagjini | 9.5% |
| FC Lugano 2-0 Dukagjini | 9.3% |
| FC Lugano 0-1 Dukagjini | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.62 expected goals for FC Lugano and 1.03 for Dukagjini, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. FC Lugano keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Dukagjini in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FC Lugano expected goals | 1.62 |
| Dukagjini expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| FC Lugano clean sheet | 36% |
| Dukagjini clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
FC Lugano
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | 1. FC Heidenheim · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Memmingen · Club Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Rapperswil · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Neuchatel Xamax FC · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Taverne · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
Dukagjini
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia · Club Friendlies | 3-3 | D |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Veres Rivne · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Lugano and Dukagjini: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
FC Lugano
No absences reported.
Dukagjini
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Vojvodina 1-4 AjaxJul 23, 2026
- Žilina 2-1 GKS KatowiceJul 23, 2026
- Hapoel Tel Aviv 2-0 LudogoretsJul 23, 2026
- Borac Banja Luka 3-0 PetrocubJul 23, 2026
- LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 GentJul 23, 2026
- HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry CityJul 23, 2026
- Motherwell 2-0 HB TorshavnJul 23, 2026
- Bravo 2-1 ShkendijaJul 23, 2026
- NSI Runavik 0-2 KoperJul 23, 2026
- Shelbourne 5-2 Kalju NommeJul 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the FC Lugano vs Dukagjini prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave FC Lugano a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Dukagjini 24%. FC Lugano are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for FC Lugano vs Dukagjini?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.3%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in FC Lugano vs Dukagjini?
The probability that both FC Lugano and Dukagjini score is 52%. FC Lugano have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Dukagjini 20%.
How many goals should we expect in FC Lugano vs Dukagjini?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.62 for FC Lugano, 1.03 for Dukagjini). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is FC Lugano vs Dukagjini played?
Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: AIL Arena, Lugano.
What form are FC Lugano and Dukagjini in?
FC Lugano: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Dukagjini: 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 2 matches (4 scored, 3 conceded).
What was the FC Lugano vs Dukagjini result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: FC Lugano 1-0 Dukagjini. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for FC Lugano at 51%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
How is the FC Lugano vs Dukagjini prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.62 for FC Lugano, 1.03 for Dukagjini) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FC Lugano predictions
- All Dukagjini predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology