UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 23, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
HNK Rijeka vs Derry City: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry City. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for HNK Rijeka at 87%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): missed.
Match analysis
HNK Rijeka and Derry City met on Thursday, July 23, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka. Before kick-off, our model gave HNK Rijeka a 87% chance of winning, the draw 9% and Derry City 4%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.8%) and 1-1 (10.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, HNK Rijeka have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Derry City have not won any of their last 4 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. HNK Rijeka therefore arrive in far better shape than Derry City. On average HNK Rijeka score 1.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Derry City score 1.00 and concede 2.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HNK Rijeka and Derry City: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "HNK Rijeka or draw" stands at 96%, "Derry City or draw" at 13% and "no draw" at 91%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as HNK Rijeka – Derry City. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry City | 11.8% |
| HNK Rijeka 2-0 Derry City | 10.8% |
| HNK Rijeka 1-1 Derry City | 10.8% |
| HNK Rijeka 2-1 Derry City | 9.8% |
| HNK Rijeka 3-0 Derry City | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.83 expected goals for HNK Rijeka and 0.91 for Derry City, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 52% and "both teams to score" at 50%. HNK Rijeka keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Derry City in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka expected goals | 1.83 |
| Derry City expected goals | 0.91 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| HNK Rijeka clean sheet | 40% |
| Derry City clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
HNK Rijeka
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | Radomlje · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Bravo · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Strasbourg · UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Strasbourg · UEFA Conference League | 1-2 | L |
Derry City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 9, 2026 | CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League | 2-3 | L |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Polessya · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Sligo Rovers · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka | 16 | 9 | 6 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HNK Rijeka and Derry City: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
HNK Rijeka
No absences reported.
Derry City
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Žilina 2-1 GKS KatowiceJul 23, 2026
- FC Lugano 1-0 DukagjiniJul 23, 2026
- Hapoel Tel Aviv 2-0 LudogoretsJul 23, 2026
- Borac Banja Luka 3-0 PetrocubJul 23, 2026
- Motherwell 2-0 HB TorshavnJul 23, 2026
- Bravo 2-1 ShkendijaJul 23, 2026
- NSI Runavik 0-2 KoperJul 23, 2026
- Shelbourne 5-2 Kalju NommeJul 23, 2026
- FK Partizan 4-0 UNA StrassenJul 23, 2026
- Stjarnan 1-0 IlvesJul 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the HNK Rijeka vs Derry City prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave HNK Rijeka a 87% chance of winning, the draw 9% and Derry City 4%. HNK Rijeka are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for HNK Rijeka vs Derry City?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in HNK Rijeka vs Derry City?
The probability that both HNK Rijeka and Derry City score is 50%. HNK Rijeka have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Derry City 16%.
How many goals should we expect in HNK Rijeka vs Derry City?
The model expects 2.74 goals (1.83 for HNK Rijeka, 0.91 for Derry City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is HNK Rijeka vs Derry City played?
Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka.
What form are HNK Rijeka and Derry City in?
HNK Rijeka: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded). Derry City: 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 4 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded).
What was the HNK Rijeka vs Derry City result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry City. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for HNK Rijeka at 87%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): missed.
How is the HNK Rijeka vs Derry City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.83 for HNK Rijeka, 0.91 for Derry City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All HNK Rijeka predictions
- All Derry City predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology