UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 23, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Stjarnan vs Ilves: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ilves (41%), while victory for Stjarnan was rated at only 35%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.8%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (61%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): missed.
Match analysis
Stjarnan and Ilves met on Thursday, July 23, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Stjörnuvöllur, Gardabaer. Before kick-off, our model gave Stjarnan a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ilves 41%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.0%), followed by 1-2 (8.8%) and 2-1 (8.0%).
Stjarnan are unbeaten in their last 4 matches (3 wins, 1 draw), scoring 10 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Ilves have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Stjarnan score 2.50 and concede 1.50 goals per game; Ilves score 1.20 and concede 0.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Stjarnan and Ilves: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Stjarnan or draw" stands at 59%, "Ilves or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Stjarnan – Ilves. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Stjarnan 1-1 Ilves | 11.0% |
| Stjarnan 1-2 Ilves | 8.8% |
| Stjarnan 2-1 Ilves | 8.0% |
| Stjarnan 0-1 Ilves | 7.5% |
| Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.46 expected goals for Stjarnan and 1.60 for Ilves, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 61%. Goals look likely in this one. Stjarnan keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Ilves in 23%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Stjarnan expected goals | 1.46 |
| Ilves expected goals | 1.60 |
| Both teams to score | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Stjarnan clean sheet | 20% |
| Ilves clean sheet | 23% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Stjarnan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Vikingur Gota · UEFA Conference League | 2-2 | D |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Vikingur Gota · UEFA Conference League | 3-1 | W |
| Feb 12, 2026 | B 93 · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Karpaty · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Ilves
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Differdange 03 · UEFA Conference League | 3-1 | W |
| Jul 8, 2026 | FC Differdange 03 · UEFA Conference League | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | MP · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Haka · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Gnistan · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Stjarnan and Ilves: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Stjarnan
No absences reported.
Ilves
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Žilina 2-1 GKS KatowiceJul 23, 2026
- FC Lugano 1-0 DukagjiniJul 23, 2026
- Hapoel Tel Aviv 2-0 LudogoretsJul 23, 2026
- HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry CityJul 23, 2026
- Motherwell 2-0 HB TorshavnJul 23, 2026
- Bravo 2-1 ShkendijaJul 23, 2026
- NSI Runavik 0-2 KoperJul 23, 2026
- Shelbourne 5-2 Kalju NommeJul 23, 2026
- FK Partizan 4-0 UNA StrassenJul 23, 2026
- Valur Reykjavik 1-0 ZrinjskiJul 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Stjarnan vs Ilves prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Stjarnan a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ilves 41%. Ilves are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Stjarnan vs Ilves?
1-1 (11.0%), followed by 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%), 0-1 (7.5%) and 1-0 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Stjarnan vs Ilves?
The probability that both Stjarnan and Ilves score is 61%. Stjarnan have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ilves 23%.
How many goals should we expect in Stjarnan vs Ilves?
The model expects 3.06 goals (1.46 for Stjarnan, 1.60 for Ilves). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 37%.
When and where is Stjarnan vs Ilves played?
Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Stjörnuvöllur, Gardabaer.
What form are Stjarnan and Ilves in?
Stjarnan: 3 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 4 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Ilves: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 2 conceded).
What was the Stjarnan vs Ilves result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ilves (41%), while victory for Stjarnan was rated at only 35%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.8%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (61%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): missed.
How is the Stjarnan vs Ilves prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.46 for Stjarnan, 1.60 for Ilves) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Stjarnan predictions
- All Ilves predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology