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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction: correct score and AI tips

FC LuganoFC Lugano–FK Crvena ZvezdaFK Crvena Zvezda

Match analysis

UEFA Conference League: FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda kicks off on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: AIL Arena, Lugano. The edge goes to FC Lugano (53%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a FK Crvena Zvezda win (23%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.6%), ahead of 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-0 (9.7%).

FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 14 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, FK Crvena Zvezda have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with FC Lugano. On average FC Lugano score 2.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; FK Crvena Zvezda score 1.20 and concede 1.20.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "FC Lugano or draw" stands at 77%, "FK Crvena Zvezda or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : FC Lugano are tipped by our AI model in this FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda (53%). On recent form, FC Lugano are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while FK Crvena Zvezda have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

53%
FC Lugano (Win)
24%
Draw
23%
FK Crvena Zvezda (Win)

Double chance

77%
FC Lugano or draw
47%
FK Crvena Zvezda or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as FC Lugano – FK Crvena Zvezda. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
FC Lugano 1-0 FK Crvena Zvezda11.6%
FC Lugano 1-1 FK Crvena Zvezda11.6%
FC Lugano 2-0 FK Crvena Zvezda9.7%
FC Lugano 2-1 FK Crvena Zvezda9.7%
FC Lugano 0-0 FK Crvena Zvezda6.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.67 goals in total (1.67 for FC Lugano, 1.00 for FK Crvena Zvezda): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. FC Lugano keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, FK Crvena Zvezda in 19%.

Probability
FC Lugano expected goals1.67
FK Crvena Zvezda expected goals1.00
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
FC Lugano clean sheet37%
FK Crvena Zvezda clean sheet19%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

FC Lugano

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Lausanne · Super League4-0W
Sep 16, 2026FC ST. Gallen · Super League4-1W
Sep 12, 2026BSC Young Boys · Super League2-2D
Sep 6, 2026FC Basel 1893 · Super League3-1W
Sep 3, 2026Servette FC · Super League1-0W

FK Crvena Zvezda

DateOpponentScore
Sep 13, 2026IMT Novi Beograd · Super Liga1-0W
Sep 10, 2026Radnik Surdulica · Super Liga0-0D
Sep 6, 2026FK Partizan · Super Liga2-1W
Aug 30, 2026Zemun · Super Liga2-0W
Aug 27, 2026Plzen · UEFA Europa League1-5L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
FC Lugano2400
FK Crvena Zvezda2500

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

FC Lugano

No absences reported.

FK Crvena Zvezda

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

FC Lugano

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Papadopoulos5/5
  • B. Karimov5/5
  • D. Dos Santos5/5
  • U. Bislimi5/5
  • Y. Cimignani5/5
  • A. Grgic4/5
  • D. Moncada4/5
  • D. von Ballmoos4/5
  • H. Delcroix4/5
  • L. Mai4/5
  • R. Steffen3/5

FK Crvena Zvezda

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Matheus5/5
  • D. Luckassen4/5
  • M. Gashtarov4/5
  • M. Cham3/5
  • S. Gudelj3/5
  • V. Kostov3/5
  • A. Katai2/5
  • B. Dieng2/5
  • F. Tebo Uchenna2/5
  • M. Abu Fani2/5
  • M. Ivanic2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction?

Our AI gives FC Lugano a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FK Crvena Zvezda 23%. FC Lugano are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%), 2-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).

Will both teams score in FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

The probability that both FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda score is 51%. FC Lugano have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FK Crvena Zvezda 19%.

How many goals should we expect in FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

The model expects 2.67 goals (1.67 for FC Lugano, 1.00 for FK Crvena Zvezda). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda played?

Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: AIL Arena, Lugano.

What form are FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda in?

FC Lugano: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 4 conceded). FK Crvena Zvezda: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).

How is the FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.67 for FC Lugano, 1.00 for FK Crvena Zvezda) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained