UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Atalanta vs Pafos prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Atalanta take on Pafos on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Atalanta start as favourites with a 47% chance of victory; Pafos are given 23% and the draw 30%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (17.0%), followed by 0-0 (13.9%) and 1-1 (12.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atalanta have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Pafos have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Atalanta score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Pafos score 1.20 and concede 1.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Atalanta and Pafos: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Atalanta out or doubtful: K. Sulemana and I. Hien. In double chance terms, "Atalanta or draw" stands at 77%, "Pafos or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : Atalanta are tipped by our AI model in this Atalanta v Pafos (47%). On recent form, Atalanta have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Pafos have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atalanta – Pafos. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 65% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atalanta 1-0 Pafos | 17.0% |
| Atalanta 0-0 Pafos | 13.9% |
| Atalanta 1-1 Pafos | 12.8% |
| Atalanta 0-1 Pafos | 10.5% |
| Atalanta 2-0 Pafos | 10.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.22 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.75 for Pafos, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 32% and "both teams to score" at 37%. Few goals are expected here. Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Pafos in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atalanta expected goals | 1.22 |
| Pafos expected goals | 0.75 |
| Both teams to score | 37% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 47% |
| Pafos clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atalanta
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | AS Roma · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
Pafos
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana · UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg · UEFA Europa League | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg · UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 30, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split · UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split · UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Pafos | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Atalanta and Pafos: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Atalanta
- K. Sulemana (out)
- I. Hien (out)
Pafos
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Atalanta
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Ederson4/5
- G. Scalvini4/5
- M. Carnesecchi4/5
- O. Kossounou4/5
- S. Kolasinac4/5
- C. De Ketelaere3/5
- G. Gaetano3/5
- G. Scamacca3/5
- L. Samardzic3/5
- R. Bellanova3/5
- G. Raspadori2/5
Pafos
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Biel5/5
- D. Goldar5/5
- David Luiz5/5
- I. Sunjic5/5
- Lele5/5
- N. Ioannou5/5
- R. Majecki5/5
- Bruno3/5
- D. Quina3/5
- Guga3/5
- Pepe3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Atalanta vs Pafos prediction?
Our AI gives Atalanta a 47% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Pafos 23%. Atalanta are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Atalanta vs Pafos?
1-0 (17.0%), followed by 0-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.5%) and 2-0 (10.4%).
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Pafos?
The probability that both Atalanta and Pafos score is 37%. Atalanta have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Pafos 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Atalanta vs Pafos?
The model expects 1.97 goals (1.22 for Atalanta, 0.75 for Pafos). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 59%, over 2.5 goals 32%, over 3.5 goals 14%.
When and where is Atalanta vs Pafos played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo.
What form are Atalanta and Pafos in?
Atalanta: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). Pafos: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the Atalanta vs Pafos prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.22 for Atalanta, 0.75 for Pafos) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atalanta predictions
- All Pafos predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology