UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Conference League: the Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris match is scheduled on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Amex Stadium, Brighton. Our model makes Brighton clear favourites: a 84% chance of winning, against 10% for the draw and 6% for Kauno Žalgiris. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (10.2%), followed by 2-0 (9.7%) and 4-0 (8.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Brighton have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Kauno Žalgiris have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Brighton score 3.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Kauno Žalgiris score 3.00 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Brighton out or doubtful: E. Ferguson, Y. Minteh, S. Tzimas, F. Azeez (doubtful), L. Dunk (doubtful), J. Hinshelwood (doubtful), K. Mitoma (doubtful) and P. Struijk (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Brighton or draw" stands at 94%, "Kauno Žalgiris or draw" at 16% and "no draw" at 90%.
In short : Our model backs Brighton to edge Kauno Žalgiris (84% probability). On recent form, Brighton have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Kauno Žalgiris are in good shape (4 wins in 5). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 75%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Brighton 3-0 Kauno Žalgiris | 10.2% |
| Brighton 2-0 Kauno Žalgiris | 9.7% |
| Brighton 4-0 Kauno Žalgiris | 8.1% |
| Brighton 3-1 Kauno Žalgiris | 8.0% |
| Brighton 2-1 Kauno Žalgiris | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.17 expected goals for Brighton and 0.78 for Kauno Žalgiris, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 75% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Goals look likely in this one. Brighton keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Kauno Žalgiris in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Brighton expected goals | 3.17 |
| Kauno Žalgiris expected goals | 0.78 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% |
| Brighton clean sheet | 46% |
| Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Brighton
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arsenal · Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Manchester United · EFL Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Coventry · Premier League | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Chelsea · Premier League | 3-4 | L |
Kauno Žalgiris
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Šiauliai · A Lyga | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius · A Lyga | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Panevėžys · A Lyga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Suduva Marijampole · A Lyga | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Džiugas Telšiai · A Lyga | 5-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Brighton
- E. Ferguson (out)
- Y. Minteh (out)
- S. Tzimas (out)
- F. Azeez (doubtful)
- L. Dunk (doubtful)
- J. Hinshelwood (doubtful)
- K. Mitoma (doubtful)
- P. Struijk (doubtful)
Kauno Žalgiris
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Brighton
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Kostoulas5/5
- O. Boscagli5/5
- B. Verbruggen4/5
- M. De Cuyper4/5
- D. Gomez3/5
- F. Kadioglu3/5
- L. Dunk3/5
- L. Vuskovic3/5
- M. Yalcouye3/5
- P. Gross3/5
- Y. Ayari3/5
Kauno Žalgiris
Starts over the last 2 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Hernandez2/2
- A. Kalik2/2
- G. Debeljuh2/2
- Leo Ribeiro2/2
- M. Konatar2/2
- R. Lekiatas2/2
- T. Svedkauskas2/2
- Y. Karashima2/2
- G. Sirgedas1/2
- J. Moutachy1/2
- L. I. Kastrati1/2
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction?
Our AI gives Brighton a 84% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Kauno Žalgiris 6%. Brighton are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris?
3-0 (10.2%), followed by 2-0 (9.7%), 4-0 (8.1%), 3-1 (8.0%) and 2-1 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris?
The probability that both Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris score is 52%. Brighton have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Kauno Žalgiris 4%.
How many goals should we expect in Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris?
The model expects 3.95 goals (3.17 for Brighton, 0.78 for Kauno Žalgiris). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 75%, over 3.5 goals 56%.
When and where is Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Amex Stadium, Brighton.
What form are Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris in?
Brighton: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 7 conceded). Kauno Žalgiris: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.17 for Brighton, 0.78 for Kauno Žalgiris) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Brighton predictions
- All Kauno Žalgiris predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology