UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Twente vs FC Thun prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Twente take on FC Thun on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: De Grolsch Veste, Enschede. With a 79% win probability, Twente go in as strong favourites against FC Thun (8%), with the draw rated at 13%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (11.6%), ahead of 3-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (8.6%).
Twente are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 13 and conceding 4. FC Thun have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Twente. On average Twente score 2.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; FC Thun score 1.60 and concede 1.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Twente and FC Thun: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Twente out or doubtful: S. Lemkin. In double chance terms, "Twente or draw" stands at 92%, "FC Thun or draw" at 21% and "no draw" at 87%.
In short : Twente are favourites for this Twente v FC Thun, with a 79% win probability from our model. On recent form, Twente are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while FC Thun have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. One to watch: Twente will be without S. Lemkin.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Twente – FC Thun. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Twente 2-0 FC Thun | 11.6% |
| Twente 3-0 FC Thun | 10.6% |
| Twente 2-1 FC Thun | 8.6% |
| Twente 1-0 FC Thun | 8.5% |
| Twente 3-1 FC Thun | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.47 goals in total (2.73 for Twente, 0.74 for FC Thun): over 2.5 goals has a 67% probability and both teams to score 49%. Everything points to an open game. Twente keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, FC Thun in 7%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Twente expected goals | 2.73 |
| FC Thun expected goals | 0.74 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% |
| Twente clean sheet | 48% |
| FC Thun clean sheet | 7% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Twente
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | ADO Den Haag · Eredivisie | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Telstar · Eredivisie | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Groningen · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Cambuur · Eredivisie | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Qarabag · UEFA Conference League | 4-1 | W |
FC Thun
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Grasshoppers · Super League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | FC Sion · Super League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Lausanne · Super League | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | FC ST. Gallen · Super League | 4-3 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Lech Poznan · UEFA Europa League | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| FC Thun | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Twente and FC Thun: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Twente
- S. Lemkin (out)
FC Thun
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Twente
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. van Rooij5/5
- D. Weidmann5/5
- R. Nijstad5/5
- R. Zerrouki5/5
- W. Weghorst5/5
- Y. Taha5/5
- L. Unnerstall4/5
- M. Bruns4/5
- S. Orjasaeter4/5
- M. Pjaca3/5
- R. Propper3/5
FC Thun
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Labeau4/5
- F. Dursun4/5
- F. Saiz4/5
- J. Bamert4/5
- N. Reichmuth4/5
- N. Steffen4/5
- F. Fehr3/5
- J. Roth3/5
- M. Burki3/5
- N. Zoukit3/5
- T. Strannegard3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Twente vs FC Thun prediction?
Our AI gives Twente a 79% chance of winning, the draw 13% and FC Thun 8%. Twente are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Twente vs FC Thun?
2-0 (11.6%), followed by 3-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (8.6%), 1-0 (8.5%) and 3-1 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Twente vs FC Thun?
The probability that both Twente and FC Thun score is 49%. Twente have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Thun 7%.
How many goals should we expect in Twente vs FC Thun?
The model expects 3.47 goals (2.73 for Twente, 0.74 for FC Thun). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 46%.
When and where is Twente vs FC Thun played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: De Grolsch Veste, Enschede.
What form are Twente and FC Thun in?
Twente: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 4 conceded). FC Thun: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded).
How is the Twente vs FC Thun prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.73 for Twente, 0.74 for FC Thun) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Twente predictions
- All FC Thun predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology