UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Gent vs Aarhus prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Conference League: Gent vs Aarhus kicks off on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: Planet Group Arena, Gent. With a 64% win probability, Gent go in as strong favourites against Aarhus (14%), with the draw rated at 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.1%), ahead of 2-0 (13.1%) and 1-1 (10.1%).
Gent are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 3. Aarhus have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Recent momentum is clearly with Gent. On average Gent score 1.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Aarhus score 1.20 and concede 2.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Gent and Aarhus: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Gent or draw" stands at 86%, "Aarhus or draw" at 36% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Gent are favourites for this Gent v Aarhus, with a 64% win probability from our model. On recent form, Gent are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Aarhus have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Gent – Aarhus. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Gent 1-0 Aarhus | 14.1% |
| Gent 2-0 Aarhus | 13.1% |
| Gent 1-1 Aarhus | 10.1% |
| Gent 2-1 Aarhus | 9.4% |
| Gent 3-0 Aarhus | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.58 goals in total (1.86 for Gent, 0.72 for Aarhus): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 43%. Gent keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Aarhus in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Gent expected goals | 1.86 |
| Aarhus expected goals | 0.72 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Gent clean sheet | 49% |
| Aarhus clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Gent
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Standard Liege · Jupiler Pro League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Genk · Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Cercle Brugge · Jupiler Pro League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | OH Leuven · Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Club Brugge KV · Jupiler Pro League | 2-1 | W |
Aarhus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Silkeborg · Superliga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | FC Midtjylland · Superliga | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Randers FC · Superliga | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Benfica · UEFA Europa League | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Odense · Superliga | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gent | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Aarhus | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Gent and Aarhus: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Gent
No absences reported.
Aarhus
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Gent
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Burgess5/5
- D. Roef5/5
- J. Vergara5/5
- M. Delorge5/5
- M. Ngom5/5
- M. Sonko5/5
- S. Van Der Heyden5/5
- T. Araujo5/5
- K. Wilson3/5
- M. Balikwisha3/5
- T. De Vlieger3/5
Aarhus
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Frederik Emmery3/5
- M. Anderson3/5
- T. Bech3/5
- C. Rösler2/5
- E. Kahl2/5
- Eric Kahl2/5
- J. Andersen2/5
- James Bogere2/5
- K. Arnstad2/5
- Luka Callø2/5
- M. Hedenstad Christiansen2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Gent vs Aarhus prediction?
Our AI gives Gent a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Aarhus 14%. Gent are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Gent vs Aarhus?
1-0 (14.1%), followed by 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Gent vs Aarhus?
The probability that both Gent and Aarhus score is 43%. Gent have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Aarhus 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Gent vs Aarhus?
The model expects 2.58 goals (1.86 for Gent, 0.72 for Aarhus). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Gent vs Aarhus played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Planet Group Arena, Gent.
What form are Gent and Aarhus in?
Gent: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded). Aarhus: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded).
How is the Gent vs Aarhus prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.86 for Gent, 0.72 for Aarhus) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Gent predictions
- All Aarhus predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology