UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
HNK Hajduk Split take on Ajax on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Stadion Poljud, Split. With a 60% win probability, Ajax go in as strong favourites against HNK Hajduk Split (21%), with the draw rated at 19%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (9.4%), ahead of 1-1 (8.1%) and 0-2 (7.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, HNK Hajduk Split have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Ajax have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 17 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average HNK Hajduk Split score 1.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Ajax score 3.40 and concede 1.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Ajax: S. Adingra, D. Blind, A. Bouwman, K. Dolberg and Caio Henrique (doubtful). In double chance terms, "HNK Hajduk Split or draw" stands at 40%, "Ajax or draw" at 79% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Ajax are favourites for this HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax, with a 60% win probability from our model. On recent form, HNK Hajduk Split are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Ajax have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. One to watch: Ajax will be without S. Adingra and D. Blind.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as HNK Hajduk Split – Ajax. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split 1-2 Ajax | 9.4% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 1-1 Ajax | 8.1% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 0-2 Ajax | 7.3% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 1-3 Ajax | 7.2% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 0-1 Ajax | 6.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.60 goals in total (1.29 for HNK Hajduk Split, 2.31 for Ajax): over 2.5 goals has a 70% probability and both teams to score 65%. Everything points to an open game. HNK Hajduk Split keep a clean sheet in 10% of scenarios, Ajax in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split expected goals | 1.29 |
| Ajax expected goals | 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% |
| HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet | 10% |
| Ajax clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
HNK Hajduk Split
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | HNK Rijeka · HNL | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo · HNL | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Vardarac · Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Rudes · HNL | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · HNL | 2-0 | W |
Ajax
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II · Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Telstar · Eredivisie | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| Ajax | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
HNK Hajduk Split
No absences reported.
Ajax
- S. Adingra (out)
- D. Blind (out)
- A. Bouwman (out)
- K. Dolberg (out)
- Caio Henrique (doubtful)
Most regular starters
HNK Hajduk Split
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- D. de Almeida4/4
- D. Maresic4/4
- M. Acapandie4/4
- M. Sego4/4
- M. Soticek4/4
- R. Raci4/4
- S. Hrgovic4/4
- T. Silic4/4
- A. del Moral3/4
- A. Pajaziti3/4
- A. Sanyang3/4
Ajax
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Brandt5/5
- J. Mokio5/5
- A. Gaaei4/5
- Caio Henrique4/5
- D. Klaassen4/5
- M. ter Stegen4/5
- O. Gloukh4/5
- S. Berghuis4/5
- Y. Baas4/5
- T. Arokodare3/5
- T. Kehrer3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Mjallby AIF – Inter Club d'EscaldesOct 15, 2026
- CSKA Sofia – MonacoOct 15, 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë – FC MidtjyllandOct 15, 2026
- Universitatea Craiova – GetafeOct 15, 2026
- Panathinaikos – Borac Banja LukaOct 15, 2026
- KuPS – TrabzonsporOct 15, 2026
- Gent – AarhusOct 15, 2026
- FC Lugano – FK Crvena ZvezdaOct 15, 2026
- Riga – Kairat AlmatyOct 15, 2026
- Atalanta – PafosOct 15, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction?
Our AI gives HNK Hajduk Split a 21% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ajax 60%. Ajax are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
1-2 (9.4%), followed by 1-1 (8.1%), 0-2 (7.3%), 1-3 (7.2%) and 0-1 (6.3%).
Will both teams score in HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
The probability that both HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax score is 65%. HNK Hajduk Split have a 10% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ajax 28%.
How many goals should we expect in HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
The model expects 3.60 goals (1.29 for HNK Hajduk Split, 2.31 for Ajax). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 49%.
When and where is HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Stadion Poljud, Split.
What form are HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax in?
HNK Hajduk Split: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded). Ajax: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.29 for HNK Hajduk Split, 2.31 for Ajax) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All HNK Hajduk Split predictions
- All Ajax predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology