UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Riga vs Kairat Almaty prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Riga take on Kairat Almaty on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Skonto stadions, Riga. The edge goes to Riga (51%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Kairat Almaty win (24%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.8%), ahead of 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Riga have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Kairat Almaty have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Riga score 2.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Kairat Almaty score 1.60 and concede 1.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Riga and Kairat Almaty: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Riga or draw" stands at 76%, "Kairat Almaty or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Riga are favourites for this Riga v Kairat Almaty, with a 51% win probability from our model. On recent form, Riga have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Kairat Almaty have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Riga – Kairat Almaty. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Riga 1-1 Kairat Almaty | 11.8% |
| Riga 1-0 Kairat Almaty | 11.4% |
| Riga 2-1 Kairat Almaty | 9.5% |
| Riga 2-0 Kairat Almaty | 9.2% |
| Riga 0-1 Kairat Almaty | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.61 for Riga, 1.04 for Kairat Almaty): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Riga keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Kairat Almaty in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Riga expected goals | 1.61 |
| Kairat Almaty expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Riga clean sheet | 35% |
| Kairat Almaty clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Riga
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | Rīgas FS · Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | FK Liepaja · Virsliga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 27, 2026 | KI Klaksvik · UEFA Conference League | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rīgas FS · Virsliga | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 20, 2026 | KI Klaksvik · UEFA Conference League | 0-0 | D |
Kairat Almaty
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Kaspiy · Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Yelimay Semey · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Anderlecht · UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Anderlecht · UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ulytau · Premier League | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 36 | 0 | 0 |
| Kairat Almaty | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Riga and Kairat Almaty: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Riga
No absences reported.
Kairat Almaty
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Riga
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Ankrah3/4
- B. Musah3/4
- F. Orols3/4
- K. Wassom3/4
- R. Jurkovskis3/4
- A. Salazar2/4
- Caio Ferreira2/4
- Iago Siqueira2/4
- M. Diop2/4
- Paulo Eduardo2/4
- R. Aouani2/4
Kairat Almaty
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Edmilson4/5
- J. Oksanen4/5
- L. Mata4/5
- M. Gual4/5
- O. Jukkola4/5
- A. Mrynskiy3/5
- A. Shirobokov3/5
- E. Tapalov3/5
- G. Mendonsa3/5
- T. Anarbekov3/5
- L. Kurgin2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Riga vs Kairat Almaty prediction?
Our AI gives Riga a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Kairat Almaty 24%. Riga are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
The probability that both Riga and Kairat Almaty score is 52%. Riga have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Kairat Almaty 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for Riga, 1.04 for Kairat Almaty). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Riga vs Kairat Almaty played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Skonto stadions, Riga.
What form are Riga and Kairat Almaty in?
Riga: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded). Kairat Almaty: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the Riga vs Kairat Almaty prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Riga, 1.04 for Kairat Almaty) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Riga predictions
- All Kairat Almaty predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology