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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 20, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split2 – 2Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Raków Częstochowa. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for HNK Hajduk Split (37%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

Match analysis

HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa was played on Thursday, August 20, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Stadion Poljud, Split. Before kick-off, our model gave HNK Hajduk Split a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Raków Częstochowa 37%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.6%), ahead of 1-0 (9.8%) and 0-1 (9.7%).

Over their last 5 matches, HNK Hajduk Split have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Raków Częstochowa have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average HNK Hajduk Split score 2.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Raków Częstochowa score 2.00 and concede 0.80.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "HNK Hajduk Split or draw" stands at 63%, "Raków Częstochowa or draw" at 63% and "no draw" at 74%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

37%
HNK Hajduk Split (Win)
26%
Draw
37%
Raków Częstochowa (Win)

Double chance

63%
HNK Hajduk Split or draw
63%
Raków Częstochowa or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as HNK Hajduk Split – Raków Częstochowa. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
HNK Hajduk Split 1-1 Raków Częstochowa12.6%
HNK Hajduk Split 1-0 Raków Częstochowa9.8%
HNK Hajduk Split 0-1 Raków Częstochowa9.7%
HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 Raków Częstochowa8.2%
HNK Hajduk Split 1-2 Raków Częstochowa8.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.59 goals in total (1.30 for HNK Hajduk Split, 1.29 for Raków Częstochowa): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 53%. HNK Hajduk Split keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Raków Częstochowa in 27%.

Probability
HNK Hajduk Split expected goals1.30
Raków Częstochowa expected goals1.29
Both teams to score53%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet28%
Raków Częstochowa clean sheet27%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

HNK Hajduk Split

DateOpponentScore
Aug 13, 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius · UEFA Conference League4-0W
Aug 6, 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius · UEFA Conference League5-2W
Jul 30, 2026Pafos · UEFA Europa League0-2L
Jul 23, 2026Pafos · UEFA Europa League2-0W
Jul 16, 2026Žilina · UEFA Europa League1-2L

Raków Częstochowa

DateOpponentScore
Aug 13, 2026Hammarby FF · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Aug 6, 2026Hammarby FF · UEFA Conference League0-0D
Jul 30, 2026Valletta FC · UEFA Conference League4-0W
Jul 23, 2026Valletta FC · UEFA Conference League3-1W
Jul 11, 2026PSV Eindhoven · Club Friendlies2-3L

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

HNK Hajduk Split

No absences reported.

Raków Częstochowa

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave HNK Hajduk Split a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Raków Częstochowa 37%. HNK Hajduk Split are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa?

1-1 (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.7%), 2-1 (8.2%) and 1-2 (8.1%).

Will both teams score in HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa?

The probability that both HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa score is 53%. HNK Hajduk Split have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Raków Częstochowa 27%.

How many goals should we expect in HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa?

The model expects 2.59 goals (1.30 for HNK Hajduk Split, 1.29 for Raków Częstochowa). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.

When and where is HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa played?

Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Stadion Poljud, Split.

What form are HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa in?

HNK Hajduk Split: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded). Raków Częstochowa: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 4 conceded).

What was the HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Raków Częstochowa. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for HNK Hajduk Split (37%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

How is the HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.30 for HNK Hajduk Split, 1.29 for Raków Częstochowa) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained