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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 20, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)

Motherwell vs SC Freiburg: 1-3 result and AI prediction review

MotherwellMotherwell1 – 3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Motherwell 1-3 SC Freiburg. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for SC Freiburg at 44%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

Match analysis

Motherwell and SC Freiburg met on Thursday, August 20, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Fir Park, Motherwell. Before kick-off, our model gave Motherwell a 30% chance of winning, the draw 26% and SC Freiburg 44%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.4%), followed by 0-1 (10.7%) and 1-2 (8.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, Motherwell have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, SC Freiburg have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Motherwell score 2.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; SC Freiburg score 2.40 and concede 1.00.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Motherwell and SC Freiburg: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Motherwell or draw" stands at 56%, "SC Freiburg or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 74%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

30%
Motherwell (Win)
26%
Draw
44%
SC Freiburg (Win)

Double chance

56%
Motherwell or draw
70%
SC Freiburg or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Motherwell – SC Freiburg. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Motherwell 1-1 SC Freiburg12.4%
Motherwell 0-1 SC Freiburg10.7%
Motherwell 1-2 SC Freiburg8.9%
Motherwell 1-0 SC Freiburg8.6%
Motherwell 0-2 SC Freiburg7.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.16 expected goals for Motherwell and 1.44 for SC Freiburg, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Motherwell keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, SC Freiburg in 31%.

Probability
Motherwell expected goals1.16
SC Freiburg expected goals1.44
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Motherwell clean sheet24%
SC Freiburg clean sheet31%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Motherwell

DateOpponentScore
Aug 13, 2026HJK Helsinki · UEFA Conference League2-0W
Aug 6, 2026HJK Helsinki · UEFA Conference League1-1D
Jul 30, 2026HB Torshavn · UEFA Conference League3-0W
Jul 23, 2026HB Torshavn · UEFA Conference League2-0W
Jul 17, 2026Genk · Club Friendlies3-4L

SC Freiburg

DateOpponentScore
Aug 15, 2026Crystal Palace · Club Friendlies3-0W
Aug 8, 2026Strasbourg · Club Friendlies2-0W
Jul 24, 2026Derby · Club Friendlies3-1W
May 20, 2026Aston Villa · UEFA Europa League0-3L
May 16, 2026RB Leipzig · Bundesliga4-1W

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Motherwell and SC Freiburg: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Motherwell

No absences reported.

SC Freiburg

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Motherwell vs SC Freiburg prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Motherwell a 30% chance of winning, the draw 26% and SC Freiburg 44%. SC Freiburg are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg?

1-1 (12.4%), followed by 0-1 (10.7%), 1-2 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.7%).

Will both teams score in Motherwell vs SC Freiburg?

The probability that both Motherwell and SC Freiburg score is 52%. Motherwell have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, SC Freiburg 31%.

How many goals should we expect in Motherwell vs SC Freiburg?

The model expects 2.60 goals (1.16 for Motherwell, 1.44 for SC Freiburg). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.

When and where is Motherwell vs SC Freiburg played?

Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Fir Park, Motherwell.

What form are Motherwell and SC Freiburg in?

Motherwell: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded). SC Freiburg: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded).

What was the Motherwell vs SC Freiburg result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Motherwell 1-3 SC Freiburg. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for SC Freiburg at 44%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

How is the Motherwell vs SC Freiburg prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.16 for Motherwell, 1.44 for SC Freiburg) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained