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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 13, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Ilves vs HNK Rijeka: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

IlvesIlves1 – 1HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-0

Final score: Ilves 1-1 HNK Rijeka. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for HNK Rijeka (47%), while a draw was rated at only 37%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (10.1%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (21%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (16%): correct.

Match analysis

Ilves vs HNK Rijeka was played on Thursday, August 13, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Tammelan Stadion, Tampere. Before kick-off, our model gave Ilves a 16% chance of winning, the draw 37% and HNK Rijeka 47%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (25.7%), ahead of 0-1 (24.1%) and 0-2 (11.3%).

Over their last 5 matches, Ilves have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 3. HNK Rijeka are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 8 and conceding 0. Recent momentum is clearly with HNK Rijeka. On average Ilves score 0.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; HNK Rijeka score 1.60 and concede 0.00.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Ilves, 1 for HNK Rijeka and 0 draws. The most recent ended HNK Rijeka 1-0 Ilves (Aug 6, 2026). In double chance terms, "Ilves or draw" stands at 53%, "HNK Rijeka or draw" at 84% and "no draw" at 63%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

16%
Ilves (Win)
37%
Draw
47%
HNK Rijeka (Win)

Double chance

53%
Ilves or draw
84%
HNK Rijeka or draw
63%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Ilves – HNK Rijeka. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (25.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 82% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Ilves 0-0 HNK Rijeka25.7%
Ilves 0-1 HNK Rijeka24.1%
Ilves 0-2 HNK Rijeka11.3%
Ilves 1-0 HNK Rijeka10.8%
Ilves 1-1 HNK Rijeka10.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.36 goals in total (0.42 for Ilves, 0.94 for HNK Rijeka): over 2.5 goals has a 16% probability and both teams to score 21%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Ilves keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, HNK Rijeka in 66%.

Probability
Ilves expected goals0.42
HNK Rijeka expected goals0.94
Both teams to score21%
Over 1.5 goals39%
Over 2.5 goals16%
Over 3.5 goals5%
Ilves clean sheet39%
HNK Rijeka clean sheet66%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Ilves

DateOpponentScore
Aug 6, 2026HNK Rijeka · UEFA Conference League0-1L
Jul 30, 2026Stjarnan · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 23, 2026Stjarnan · UEFA Conference League0-1L
Jul 16, 2026FC Differdange 03 · UEFA Conference League3-1W
Jul 8, 2026FC Differdange 03 · UEFA Conference League0-0D

HNK Rijeka

DateOpponentScore
Aug 6, 2026Ilves · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 30, 2026Derry City · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 23, 2026Derry City · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 3, 2026Radomlje · Club Friendlies2-0W
Jun 30, 2026Brinje-Grosuplje · Club Friendlies3-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 6, 2026HNK Rijeka 1-0 IlvesUEFA Conference League

Out and doubtful

Ilves

No absences reported.

HNK Rijeka

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Ilves vs HNK Rijeka prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Ilves a 16% chance of winning, the draw 37% and HNK Rijeka 47%. HNK Rijeka are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka?

0-0 (25.7%), followed by 0-1 (24.1%), 0-2 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%) and 1-1 (10.1%).

Will both teams score in Ilves vs HNK Rijeka?

The probability that both Ilves and HNK Rijeka score is 21%. Ilves have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, HNK Rijeka 66%.

How many goals should we expect in Ilves vs HNK Rijeka?

The model expects 1.36 goals (0.42 for Ilves, 0.94 for HNK Rijeka). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 39%, over 2.5 goals 16%, over 3.5 goals 5%.

When and where is Ilves vs HNK Rijeka played?

Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Tammelan Stadion, Tampere.

What form are Ilves and HNK Rijeka in?

Ilves: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 3 conceded). HNK Rijeka: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 0 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and HNK Rijeka?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Ilves, 1 for HNK Rijeka and 0 draws. The most recent ended HNK Rijeka 1-0 Ilves (Aug 6, 2026).

What was the Ilves vs HNK Rijeka result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Ilves 1-1 HNK Rijeka. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for HNK Rijeka (47%), while a draw was rated at only 37%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (10.1%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (21%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (16%): correct.

How is the Ilves vs HNK Rijeka prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.42 for Ilves, 0.94 for HNK Rijeka) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained