UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Pafos vs Riga prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Conference League: the Pafos vs Riga match is scheduled on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi. The edge goes to Pafos (49%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Riga win (26%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Pafos have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Riga have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Riga. On average Pafos score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Riga score 2.00 and concede 1.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Pafos and Riga: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Pafos or draw" stands at 74%, "Riga or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Pafos are tipped by our AI model in this Pafos v Riga (49%). On recent form, Pafos have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Riga have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Pafos – Riga. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Pafos 1-1 Riga | 12.0% |
| Pafos 1-0 Riga | 11.3% |
| Pafos 2-1 Riga | 9.4% |
| Pafos 2-0 Riga | 8.9% |
| Pafos 0-1 Riga | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.64 goals in total (1.58 for Pafos, 1.06 for Riga): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Pafos keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Riga in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Pafos expected goals | 1.58 |
| Riga expected goals | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Pafos clean sheet | 35% |
| Riga clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Pafos
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana · UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg · UEFA Europa League | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg · UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 30, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split · UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split · UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
Riga
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | Rīgas FS · Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | FK Liepaja · Virsliga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 27, 2026 | KI Klaksvik · UEFA Conference League | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rīgas FS · Virsliga | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 20, 2026 | KI Klaksvik · UEFA Conference League | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| Riga | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Pafos and Riga: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Pafos
No absences reported.
Riga
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Pafos
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Biel5/5
- D. Goldar5/5
- David Luiz5/5
- I. Sunjic5/5
- Lele5/5
- N. Ioannou5/5
- R. Majecki5/5
- Bruno3/5
- D. Quina3/5
- Guga3/5
- Pepe3/5
Riga
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Ankrah3/4
- B. Musah3/4
- F. Orols3/4
- K. Wassom3/4
- R. Jurkovskis3/4
- A. Salazar2/4
- Caio Ferreira2/4
- Iago Siqueira2/4
- M. Diop2/4
- Paulo Eduardo2/4
- R. Aouani2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Pafos vs Riga prediction?
Our AI gives Pafos a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Riga 26%. Pafos are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Pafos vs Riga?
1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.9%) and 0-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Pafos vs Riga?
The probability that both Pafos and Riga score is 52%. Pafos have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Riga 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Pafos vs Riga?
The model expects 2.64 goals (1.58 for Pafos, 1.06 for Riga). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Pafos vs Riga played?
Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi.
What form are Pafos and Riga in?
Pafos: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Riga: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded).
How is the Pafos vs Riga prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.58 for Pafos, 1.06 for Riga) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Pafos predictions
- All Riga predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology