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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction: correct score and AI tips

FC ThunFC Thun–HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split

Match analysis

UEFA Conference League: FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split kicks off on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Stockhorn Arena, Thun. FC Thun start as favourites with a 47% chance of victory; HNK Hajduk Split are given 27% and the draw 26%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.3%).

FC Thun have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, HNK Hajduk Split have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 3. HNK Hajduk Split therefore arrive in far better shape than FC Thun. On average FC Thun score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; HNK Hajduk Split score 1.80 and concede 0.60.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "FC Thun or draw" stands at 73%, "HNK Hajduk Split or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : FC Thun are tipped by our AI model in this FC Thun v HNK Hajduk Split (47%). On recent form, FC Thun have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while HNK Hajduk Split are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

47%
FC Thun (Win)
26%
Draw
27%
HNK Hajduk Split (Win)

Double chance

73%
FC Thun or draw
53%
HNK Hajduk Split or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as FC Thun – HNK Hajduk Split. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
FC Thun 1-1 HNK Hajduk Split12.2%
FC Thun 1-0 HNK Hajduk Split11.1%
FC Thun 2-1 HNK Hajduk Split9.3%
FC Thun 2-0 HNK Hajduk Split8.4%
FC Thun 0-1 HNK Hajduk Split8.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.52 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.10 for HNK Hajduk Split, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. FC Thun keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, HNK Hajduk Split in 22%.

Probability
FC Thun expected goals1.52
HNK Hajduk Split expected goals1.10
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
FC Thun clean sheet33%
HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet22%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

FC Thun

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026Grasshoppers · Super League0-1L
Sep 6, 2026FC Sion · Super League2-3L
Sep 2, 2026Lausanne · Super League0-0D
Aug 30, 2026FC ST. Gallen · Super League4-3W
Aug 27, 2026Lech Poznan · UEFA Europa League2-2D

HNK Hajduk Split

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026HNK Rijeka · HNL0-3L
Sep 13, 2026NK Slaven Belupo · HNL1-0W
Sep 8, 2026Vardarac · Cup2-0W
Sep 6, 2026Rudes · HNL4-0W
Aug 31, 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · HNL2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
FC Thun2600
HNK Hajduk Split1400

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

FC Thun

No absences reported.

HNK Hajduk Split

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

FC Thun

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • B. Labeau4/5
  • F. Dursun4/5
  • F. Saiz4/5
  • J. Bamert4/5
  • N. Reichmuth4/5
  • N. Steffen4/5
  • F. Fehr3/5
  • J. Roth3/5
  • M. Burki3/5
  • N. Zoukit3/5
  • T. Strannegard3/5

HNK Hajduk Split

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. de Almeida4/4
  • D. Maresic4/4
  • M. Acapandie4/4
  • M. Sego4/4
  • M. Soticek4/4
  • R. Raci4/4
  • S. Hrgovic4/4
  • T. Silic4/4
  • A. del Moral3/4
  • A. Pajaziti3/4
  • A. Sanyang3/4

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction?

Our AI gives FC Thun a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and HNK Hajduk Split 27%. FC Thun are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?

1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.4%) and 0-1 (8.0%).

Will both teams score in FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?

The probability that both FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split score is 52%. FC Thun have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, HNK Hajduk Split 22%.

How many goals should we expect in FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?

The model expects 2.62 goals (1.52 for FC Thun, 1.10 for HNK Hajduk Split). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split played?

Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Stockhorn Arena, Thun.

What form are FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split in?

FC Thun: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). HNK Hajduk Split: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded).

How is the FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.52 for FC Thun, 1.10 for HNK Hajduk Split) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained