UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Conference League: FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden kicks off on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: MCH Arena, Herning. Our model makes St. Truiden clear favourites: a 80% chance of winning, against 11% for the draw and 9% for FC Midtjylland. On the correct score, 1-3 comes out on top (7.4%), followed by 1-4 (6.8%) and 1-2 (6.0%).
FC Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 16 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, St. Truiden have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 10. FC Midtjylland therefore arrive in far better shape than St. Truiden. On average FC Midtjylland score 3.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; St. Truiden score 2.00 and concede 2.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "FC Midtjylland or draw" stands at 20%, "St. Truiden or draw" at 91% and "no draw" at 89%.
In short : Our model backs St. Truiden to edge FC Midtjylland (80% probability). On recent form, FC Midtjylland have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5 while St. Truiden have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 88%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FC Midtjylland – St. Truiden. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (7.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 31% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland 1-3 St. Truiden | 7.4% |
| FC Midtjylland 1-4 St. Truiden | 6.8% |
| FC Midtjylland 1-2 St. Truiden | 6.0% |
| FC Midtjylland 0-3 St. Truiden | 5.5% |
| FC Midtjylland 0-4 St. Truiden | 5.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.33 expected goals for FC Midtjylland and 3.68 for St. Truiden, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 88% and "both teams to score" at 72%. Goals look likely in this one. FC Midtjylland keep a clean sheet in 3% of scenarios, St. Truiden in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland expected goals | 1.33 |
| St. Truiden expected goals | 3.68 |
| Both teams to score | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 96% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 74% |
| FC Midtjylland clean sheet | 3% |
| St. Truiden clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
FC Midtjylland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Brondby · Superliga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sundby · DBU Pokalen | 7-0 | W |
| Sep 7, 2026 | FC Nordsjaelland · Superliga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Aarhus · Superliga | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Silkeborg · Superliga | 1-1 | D |
St. Truiden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | SK Beveren · Jupiler Pro League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière · Jupiler Pro League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise · Jupiler Pro League | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Antwerp · Jupiler Pro League | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia · UEFA Europa League | 2-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| St. Truiden | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
FC Midtjylland
No absences reported.
St. Truiden
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
FC Midtjylland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- P. Bravo5/5
- M. Jensen4/5
- P. Billing4/5
- R. Kristensen4/5
- Cho Gue-Sung3/5
- D. Castillo3/5
- E. Olafsson3/5
- F. Etim3/5
- K. Watjen3/5
- M. Erlic3/5
- D. Beni2/5
St. Truiden
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Sissako5/5
- I. Sebaoui5/5
- L. Kokubo5/5
- R. Vanwesemael5/5
- V. Musliu5/5
- R. Araki4/5
- R. Merlen4/5
- A. Muja3/5
- S. Taniguchi3/5
- T. Hata3/5
- J. Pupe2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden prediction?
Our AI gives FC Midtjylland a 9% chance of winning, the draw 11% and St. Truiden 80%. St. Truiden are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden?
1-3 (7.4%), followed by 1-4 (6.8%), 1-2 (6.0%), 0-3 (5.5%) and 0-4 (5.1%).
Will both teams score in FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden?
The probability that both FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden score is 72%. FC Midtjylland have a 3% chance of keeping a clean sheet, St. Truiden 26%.
How many goals should we expect in FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden?
The model expects 5.01 goals (1.33 for FC Midtjylland, 3.68 for St. Truiden). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 96%, over 2.5 goals 88%, over 3.5 goals 74%.
When and where is FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden played?
Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: MCH Arena, Herning.
What form are FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden in?
FC Midtjylland: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 4 conceded). St. Truiden: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 10 conceded).
How is the FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.33 for FC Midtjylland, 3.68 for St. Truiden) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FC Midtjylland predictions
- All St. Truiden predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology