UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Ajax vs Atalanta prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Conference League: Ajax vs Atalanta kicks off on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. With a 73% win probability, Ajax go in as strong favourites against Atalanta (10%), with the draw rated at 17%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.9%), ahead of 1-0 (11.4%) and 3-0 (9.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ajax have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 17 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Atalanta have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Ajax. On average Ajax score 3.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Atalanta score 0.80 and concede 1.20. Over their recent games, Ajax have averaged 2.06 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.80 for Atalanta.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ajax and Atalanta: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Ajax out or doubtful: S. Adingra, D. Blind, A. Bouwman, K. Dolberg and Caio Henrique (doubtful). Atalanta: K. Sulemana and I. Hien. In double chance terms, "Ajax or draw" stands at 90%, "Atalanta or draw" at 27% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Ajax are favourites for this Ajax v Atalanta, with a 73% win probability from our model. On recent form, Ajax have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Atalanta have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. One to watch: Ajax will be without S. Adingra and D. Blind.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ajax – Atalanta. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ajax 2-0 Atalanta | 12.9% |
| Ajax 1-0 Atalanta | 11.4% |
| Ajax 3-0 Atalanta | 9.8% |
| Ajax 2-1 Atalanta | 9.3% |
| Ajax 1-1 Atalanta | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.00 goals in total (2.28 for Ajax, 0.72 for Atalanta): over 2.5 goals has a 58% probability and both teams to score 46%. Ajax keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Atalanta in 10%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ajax expected goals | 2.28 |
| Atalanta expected goals | 0.72 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Ajax clean sheet | 49% |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 10% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ajax
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II · Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Telstar · Eredivisie | 4-0 | W |
Atalanta
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | AS Roma · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Atalanta | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ajax and Atalanta: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Ajax
- S. Adingra (out)
- D. Blind (out)
- A. Bouwman (out)
- K. Dolberg (out)
- Caio Henrique (doubtful)
Atalanta
- K. Sulemana (out)
- I. Hien (out)
Most regular starters
Ajax
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Brandt5/5
- J. Mokio5/5
- A. Gaaei4/5
- Caio Henrique4/5
- D. Klaassen4/5
- M. ter Stegen4/5
- O. Gloukh4/5
- S. Berghuis4/5
- Y. Baas4/5
- T. Arokodare3/5
- T. Kehrer3/5
Atalanta
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Ederson4/5
- G. Scalvini4/5
- M. Carnesecchi4/5
- O. Kossounou4/5
- S. Kolasinac4/5
- C. De Ketelaere3/5
- G. Gaetano3/5
- G. Scamacca3/5
- L. Samardzic3/5
- R. Bellanova3/5
- G. Raspadori2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Ajax vs Atalanta prediction?
Our AI gives Ajax a 73% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Atalanta 10%. Ajax are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Ajax vs Atalanta?
2-0 (12.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-1 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Atalanta?
The probability that both Ajax and Atalanta score is 46%. Ajax have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atalanta 10%.
How many goals should we expect in Ajax vs Atalanta?
The model expects 3.00 goals (2.28 for Ajax, 0.72 for Atalanta). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 35%.
When and where is Ajax vs Atalanta played?
Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam.
What form are Ajax and Atalanta in?
Ajax: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 7 conceded). Atalanta: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Ajax vs Atalanta prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.28 for Ajax, 0.72 for Atalanta) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ajax predictions
- All Atalanta predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology