UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Monaco vs SC Freiburg prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Conference League: the Monaco vs SC Freiburg match is scheduled on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco. The edge goes to SC Freiburg (46%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Monaco win (29%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.5%), ahead of 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-1 (9.3%).
Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 3. SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 16 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Monaco score 1.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; SC Freiburg score 3.20 and concede 1.00. Over their recent games, Monaco have averaged 1.11 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.81 for SC Freiburg.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Monaco and SC Freiburg: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Monaco out or doubtful: P. Brunner (suspended), A. Fati, M. Coulibaly (doubtful) and S. Idumbo (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Monaco or draw" stands at 54%, "SC Freiburg or draw" at 71% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : SC Freiburg are favourites for this Monaco v SC Freiburg, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Monaco are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while SC Freiburg are in good shape (4 wins in 5). One to watch: Monaco will be without P. Brunner and A. Fati.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Monaco – SC Freiburg. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Monaco 1-1 SC Freiburg | 11.5% |
| Monaco 1-2 SC Freiburg | 9.3% |
| Monaco 0-1 SC Freiburg | 9.3% |
| Monaco 0-2 SC Freiburg | 7.5% |
| Monaco 2-1 SC Freiburg | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.86 goals in total (1.24 for Monaco, 1.62 for SC Freiburg): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 57%. Monaco keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, SC Freiburg in 29%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Monaco expected goals | 1.24 |
| SC Freiburg expected goals | 1.62 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Monaco clean sheet | 20% |
| SC Freiburg clean sheet | 29% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Monaco
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pisa · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
SC Freiburg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Luzern · Club Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| SC Freiburg | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Monaco and SC Freiburg: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Monaco
- P. Brunner (suspended)
- A. Fati (out)
- M. Coulibaly (doubtful)
- S. Idumbo (doubtful)
SC Freiburg
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Monaco
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Golovin4/4
- D. Zakaria4/4
- E. Dier4/4
- L. Camara4/4
- L. Hradecky4/4
- Nazinho4/4
- P. Brunner4/4
- S. Sane4/4
- Vanderson4/4
- S. Idumbo3/4
- M. Coulibaly2/4
SC Freiburg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Beste5/5
- M. Ginter5/5
- D. Scherhant4/5
- I. Matanovic4/5
- J. Makengo4/5
- M. Backhaus4/5
- M. Eggestein4/5
- P. Lienhart4/5
- Y. Engelhardt4/5
- Y. Suzuki4/5
- P. Treu3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Monaco vs SC Freiburg prediction?
Our AI gives Monaco a 29% chance of winning, the draw 25% and SC Freiburg 46%. SC Freiburg are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
1-1 (11.5%), followed by 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.3%), 0-2 (7.5%) and 2-1 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
The probability that both Monaco and SC Freiburg score is 57%. Monaco have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, SC Freiburg 29%.
How many goals should we expect in Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
The model expects 2.86 goals (1.24 for Monaco, 1.62 for SC Freiburg). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Monaco vs SC Freiburg played?
Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco.
What form are Monaco and SC Freiburg in?
Monaco: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded). SC Freiburg: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the Monaco vs SC Freiburg prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.24 for Monaco, 1.62 for SC Freiburg) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Monaco predictions
- All SC Freiburg predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology