UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 13, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Shelbourne vs Ajax: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Shelbourne 2-2 Ajax. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ajax (76%), while a draw was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (3.8%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): correct.
Match analysis
Shelbourne vs Ajax was played on Thursday, August 13, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Tolka Park, Dublin. Before kick-off, our model gave Shelbourne a 9% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Ajax 76%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (10.7%), ahead of 0-3 (9.5%) and 1-2 (9.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Shelbourne have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Ajax are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Ajax. On average Shelbourne score 2.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Ajax score 2.80 and concede 0.80.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Shelbourne, 1 for Ajax and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ajax 3-1 Shelbourne (Aug 6, 2026). Ajax: R. Bounida, J. Faberski, A. Kaplan, J. Sutalo and A. van Axel Dongen. In double chance terms, "Shelbourne or draw" stands at 24%, "Ajax or draw" at 91% and "no draw" at 85%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Shelbourne – Ajax. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (10.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Shelbourne 0-2 Ajax | 10.7% |
| Shelbourne 0-3 Ajax | 9.5% |
| Shelbourne 1-2 Ajax | 9.0% |
| Shelbourne 0-1 Ajax | 8.0% |
| Shelbourne 1-3 Ajax | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.51 goals in total (0.84 for Shelbourne, 2.67 for Ajax): over 2.5 goals has a 68% probability and both teams to score 53%. Everything points to an open game. Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 7% of scenarios, Ajax in 43%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Shelbourne expected goals | 0.84 |
| Ajax expected goals | 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% |
| Shelbourne clean sheet | 7% |
| Ajax clean sheet | 43% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Shelbourne
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ajax · UEFA Conference League | 1-3 | L |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Kalju Nomme · UEFA Conference League | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Kalju Nomme · UEFA Conference League | 5-2 | W |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Celtic · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Longford Town · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
Ajax
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Shelbourne · UEFA Conference League | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Volendam · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Vojvodina · UEFA Conference League | 4-1 | W |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Burnley · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 34 | 2 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ajax 3-1 Shelbourne | UEFA Conference League |
Out and doubtful
Shelbourne
No absences reported.
Ajax
- R. Bounida (out)
- J. Faberski (out)
- A. Kaplan (out)
- J. Sutalo (out)
- A. van Axel Dongen (out)
Other matches in this competition
- FC ST. Gallen 5-1 Sheriff TiraspolAug 13, 2026
- Drita 5-0 Tre FioriAug 13, 2026
- Shkendija 0-0 HibernianAug 13, 2026
- FC Sion 2-1 FC NoahAug 13, 2026
- Austria Vienna 1-2 Beitar JerusalemAug 13, 2026
- Gyori ETO FC 1-1 RigaAug 13, 2026
- Motherwell 2-0 HJK HelsinkiAug 13, 2026
- Gent 1-1 IFK GoteborgAug 13, 2026
- Dinamo Tirana 4-0 AudaAug 13, 2026
- HNK Hajduk Split 4-0 FK Zalgiris VilniusAug 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Shelbourne vs Ajax prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Shelbourne a 9% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Ajax 76%. Ajax are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Shelbourne vs Ajax?
0-2 (10.7%), followed by 0-3 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%) and 1-3 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Ajax?
The probability that both Shelbourne and Ajax score is 53%. Shelbourne have a 7% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ajax 43%.
How many goals should we expect in Shelbourne vs Ajax?
The model expects 3.51 goals (0.84 for Shelbourne, 2.67 for Ajax). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 68%, over 3.5 goals 47%.
When and where is Shelbourne vs Ajax played?
Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Tolka Park, Dublin.
What form are Shelbourne and Ajax in?
Shelbourne: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 9 conceded). Ajax: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Ajax?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Shelbourne, 1 for Ajax and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ajax 3-1 Shelbourne (Aug 6, 2026).
What was the Shelbourne vs Ajax result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Shelbourne 2-2 Ajax. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ajax (76%), while a draw was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (3.8%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): correct.
How is the Shelbourne vs Ajax prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.84 for Shelbourne, 2.67 for Ajax) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Shelbourne predictions
- All Ajax predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology